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緊縮政策產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響 中國“地王”岌岌可危

China's 'land kings' under threat as tightening takes a toll

中國日報(bào)網(wǎng) 2014-03-11 09:51

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緊縮政策產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響 中國“地王”岌岌可危

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The days of Chinese developers snatching up premium properties with record-breaking offers are coming to an end as cooling measures bite and sale prices are squeezed, ending the reign of a handful of "land kings" in the world's second-largest economy.

First coined during the stimulus-fuelled 2009 real-estate boom, the Chinese expression is used to describe developers - at the time mostly state-owned companies - willing to pay whatever it took to secure land banks.

A string of records were broken at auctions late last year, when private-sector real-estate companies increased their presence in the market.

But while the cost of land in premier markets, or first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, soared 135 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, property sale prices inched up just 15 percent, according to BNP Paribas.

The already high costs and the prospect of slowing property sales mean the days of records being set at land auctions are coming to a close, analysts say.

Signs of a slowdown, from weaker home price data to developers cutting prices, have already rattled financial markets in recent weeks. Real estate investment accounts for 15 percent of China's gross domestic product.

"Developers will be more rational when bidding for land this year, unlike the huge number of land kings we saw the year before," said Lin Bo, vice-research director at real estate information provider CRIC. "Considering the risks and costs, major developers are not willing to pay for premium land now."

Privately-owned China Vanke, the country's largest listed developer, said on Thursday that one of its operating strategies was to not be a land king.

"When there's a lot of people after a piece of land, we'd rather miss the land than buy wrong," said Tan Huajie, secretary of the board.

China Vanke has won 13 pieces of "premium land" in the country since 2008, making it the No 2 "land king" after state-backed Poly Real Estate Group, according to CRIC.

GOVERNMENT IMPACT

Any slump in prices paid at land auctions could also have an impact on China's indebted local governments, for whom such sales form a major portion of revenue. An average of 24 percent of local government revenue came from land sales in 2013, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance.

Chinese data last month showed that sale price rises eased for the first time in 14 months in January, in a sign that the government's more than four-year campaign to rein in property prices to avoid a bubble could finally be starting to bite.

This comes after a string of record-breaking prices being paid at government land auctions.

In September, Sunac China Holdings beat seven rivals to win a residential land plot near Beijing's eastern third ring road for 2.1 billion yuan ($342 million), the ceiling price set by local authorities.

A day later, Hong Kong-listed Sun Hung Kai Properties, Asia's most valuable developer, won a commercial plot in Shanghai for 21.8 billion yuan, a record high in the financial hub.

In a further sign that the market may be losing steam, some smaller developers have already said they won't compete for sites until market conditions improve. Private developers Yuzhou Properties and CIFI Holdings last month said land prices have become too expensive.

"When we see two signs emerge - government easing tightening and lower prices in the land market - then we will increase our land bank in Hangzhou again," CIFI Chairman Lin Zhong told a press conference last Wednesday, referring to a city about an hour from Shanghai.

Among the 10 developers that have won the most premium land since 2008, six are state-backed companies, according to CRIC. Topping the list are Poly Real Estate, China Overseas Land and Greenland Group.

Nearly 20 percent of property sold to land kings during that period remains unbuilt, while three percent of the deals were forfeited by developers due to financing issues after they paid deposits, it said.

With prices in first-tier cities expected to slow to single digit growth or stay flat this year, and private developers increasingly entering the market, the days of state-owned property companies bidding up for premium sites are expected to draw to a close.

"Fewer SOEs (state-owned enterprises) being land kings is in line with the central government's decision to let markets play a decisive role in the economy; they hope to lower the SOE's contribution to the economy and encourage private investment in construction," said Frank Chen, executive director of CBRE Research China.

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由于冷卻性政策的施行和對銷售價(jià)格的打壓,中國房地產(chǎn)商以破記錄的出價(jià)爭奪“黃金地”的日子即將接近尾聲,結(jié)束了少數(shù)“地王”在中國全世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體的統(tǒng)治。

2009年政策刺激的作用下,房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)獲得了大繁榮,用中國的話來形容當(dāng)時(shí)的房地產(chǎn)商(當(dāng)時(shí)大部分都是國有企業(yè))就是,只要能弄到“土地銀行”付出什么代價(jià)都可以。

越來越多的私人房地產(chǎn)公司開始在房地產(chǎn)業(yè)展露頭角,去年年底打破了一系列的記錄。

據(jù)巴黎銀行稱當(dāng)超級市場的土地成本不斷在增加,一些像北京和上海一樣的一線城市的房價(jià)較前一年第三季度增長了高達(dá)135%,房地產(chǎn)的銷售價(jià)格只是微升了15%。

專家分析現(xiàn)有的高成本和房地產(chǎn)銷售增長速度的放緩意味著房地產(chǎn)拍賣記錄一直被打破的日子即將結(jié)束。

房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的跡象,從保障性住房的價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)到房地產(chǎn)商大削價(jià),在最近幾個(gè)星期內(nèi)引起了金融市場的騷亂。房地產(chǎn)投資占了中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的15%。

中國房地產(chǎn)信息提供商CRIC市場調(diào)研副總監(jiān)林勃說道:“今年房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商競標(biāo)土地時(shí)會(huì)更理智,不會(huì)像去年一樣看到那么多的“地王”,考慮到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本,大多數(shù)的開發(fā)商都不愿意競標(biāo)“黃金土地”?!?/p>

中國私企房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商萬科,中國最大的上市房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商,在星期三稱其經(jīng)營策略就是不要成為“地王”。

董事會(huì)的秘書譚華杰稱:“當(dāng)很多人追逐一塊地的時(shí)候,我們寧愿錯(cuò)過也不愿買錯(cuò)?!?/p>

據(jù)CRIC數(shù)據(jù)顯示從2008年開始,萬科集團(tuán)已經(jīng)買了13塊“黃金土地”,成為中國二號“地王”,僅次于有國家支撐的保利地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)。

政府的影響

土地拍賣價(jià)格的絲毫下降也會(huì)對中國負(fù)債的政府造成巨大的影響,因土地的銷售構(gòu)成了政府稅收的很大一部分。根據(jù)財(cái)政部數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2013年地方政府的稅收收入平均24%都是來源于土地銷售。

上個(gè)月的數(shù)據(jù)顯示于一月份土地銷售價(jià)格十四個(gè)月來首次放緩了增長速度,表明政府四年多來控制房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格作出的努力開始奏效,以防泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)的出現(xiàn)。

這些都發(fā)生在政府土地拍賣中,一系列的破紀(jì)錄價(jià)格拍賣后。

九月,中國融創(chuàng)控股集團(tuán)以21億人民幣的價(jià)格(當(dāng)?shù)卣ǖ淖罡邇r(jià)格)擊敗了七個(gè)競爭對手獲得了北京三環(huán)路附近的住宅地。

一天后,香港上市公司新鴻基地產(chǎn)集團(tuán),亞洲最有競爭優(yōu)勢的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商,以218億人民幣的價(jià)格拿下了上海的一片商業(yè)用地,破金融中心的最高紀(jì)錄。

更多的跡象顯示房地產(chǎn)市場將會(huì)失去活力,一些小房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商已經(jīng)聲明直到市場狀況改善他們才會(huì)競標(biāo)土地。私人房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商禹州地產(chǎn)和旭輝控股集團(tuán)上個(gè)月都表示土地價(jià)格已經(jīng)變得太貴了。

旭輝的董事長林忠上周三在一個(gè)新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上稱當(dāng)我們看到兩種趨勢時(shí)——政府放松緊縮政策和降低房地產(chǎn)市場的價(jià)格,我們才會(huì)再在杭州擴(kuò)大我們的地產(chǎn)——指據(jù)上海一個(gè)小時(shí)路程的一個(gè)城市。

據(jù)CRIC數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在從2008年開始手中有最多的“黃金土地”的10個(gè)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商中,6個(gè)都是國家支持。位居前三的分別為保利集團(tuán)、海外發(fā)展有限公司和格林集團(tuán)。

據(jù)稱接近20%在房地產(chǎn)繁榮期間賣給地王的土地都還未建設(shè),而由于他們付款后到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),3%的交易被房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商沒收。

今年一線城市的土地價(jià)格有望持平或者只是個(gè)位數(shù)微升,再加上私人房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商進(jìn)入市場的數(shù)目的增加,國有房地產(chǎn)公司競標(biāo)“黃金土地”的日子有望接近尾聲。

世邦魏理仕中國區(qū)研究部的執(zhí)行董事陳仲偉說道:“隨著中央政府讓市場在經(jīng)濟(jì)中起主導(dǎo)作用的政策的施行,越來越少的國有地產(chǎn)公司成為“地王”,政府希望能夠削減國有地產(chǎn)公司對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn),并鼓勵(lì)增加私人在建設(shè)中的投資。”

(譯者 王發(fā)娣 編輯 丹妮)

 

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