經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，盡管新冠肺炎疫情仍有不確定性，但中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將惠及東盟成員國(guó)。商務(wù)部數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在2020年第一季度，東盟取代歐盟成為中國(guó)最大的貿(mào)易伙伴。

China's economic recovery is set to benefit member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), even amid continuing uncertainty over COVID-19, a leading Asian economist said.

亞洲一位知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，盡管新冠肺炎疫情仍存在不確定性，但中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將惠及東南亞國(guó)家聯(lián)盟（簡(jiǎn)稱東盟）成員國(guó)。

"China is an important economic partner of ASEAN, and at a time when the developed economies are suffering from a sharp downturn, China is the only large source of demand that could still be growing," said Manu Bhaskaran, founding director and CEO of Centennial Asia Advisors, an economic consultancy in Singapore.

新加坡經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)百年亞洲咨詢公司的創(chuàng)始董事兼首席執(zhí)行官馬努·巴斯卡蘭說(shuō)：“中國(guó)是東盟重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴。在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受重創(chuàng)之際，中國(guó)是唯一的巨大需求來(lái)源，且需求仍在增長(zhǎng)。”

China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner for 10 years, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2020, ASEAN replaced the European Union as China's largest trading partner, accounting for 15.1 percent of the nation's global trade volume during the period, according to the General Administration of Customs.

根據(jù)中國(guó)商務(wù)部的數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)10年來(lái)一直是東盟最大的貿(mào)易伙伴。與此同時(shí)，根據(jù)海關(guān)總署的數(shù)據(jù)，在2020年第一季度，東盟取代歐盟成為中國(guó)最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，占中國(guó)同期全球貿(mào)易額的15.1%。

Noting the easing of restrictions and the stimulus programs to boost the domestic market, Bhaskaran told China Daily that the Chinese economy will be able to stabilize in the second quarter and then enjoy "a vigorous recovery".

巴斯卡蘭在接受《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》采訪時(shí)指出，放寬限制措施和刺激計(jì)劃提振了國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將能夠在第二季度企穩(wěn)，然后迎來(lái)“強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇”。

"So far, the data seem to suggest that Chinese consumers are resilient and are stepping up spending, supporting demand," he said.

他說(shuō)：“目前的數(shù)據(jù)表明，中國(guó)的消費(fèi)者具有很大韌性，他們正在擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)，支撐需求?！?/p>

Despite the biggest GDP contraction in decades－the economy shrank 6.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter－China's consumer market has shown signs of accelerated recovery. During the five-day May Day holiday, online sales of physical commodities witnessed a 36.3 percent year-on-year surge, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

盡管中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值出現(xiàn)了幾十年來(lái)最大的下降（今年一季度，我國(guó)GDP同比下降6.8%），中國(guó)的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)顯示出加速?gòu)?fù)蘇的跡象。根據(jù)商務(wù)部的數(shù)據(jù)，在五天的“五一”假期期間，實(shí)體商品的網(wǎng)上銷售額同比激增36.3%。

With economic development a main topic at this year's two sessions, Bhaskaran sees some key issues that need to be addressed. "The employment situation remains tenuous and the sharp decline in global demand also points to continuing downside risks to the Chinese economy," he said.

隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展成為今年兩會(huì)的主要議題，巴斯卡蘭看到了一些需要解決的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。他說(shuō)：“就業(yè)形勢(shì)依然嚴(yán)峻，全球需求大幅下降也表明，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨持續(xù)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

tenuous [?tenju?s]：adj.脆弱的

China will prioritize stabilizing employment and ensuring people's livelihoods this year, aiming to create more than 9 million urban jobs, according to the Government Work Report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang on Friday.

5月22日，國(guó)務(wù)院總理李克強(qiáng)在政府工作報(bào)告中指出，今年要優(yōu)先穩(wěn)就業(yè)保民生，努力實(shí)現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)900萬(wàn)人以上。

More supply-side reforms will also help the Chinese economy sustain a recovery with good foundations, said Bhaskaran.

巴斯卡蘭表示，更多的供給側(cè)改革也將有助于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在良好基礎(chǔ)上保持復(fù)蘇態(tài)勢(shì)。

As China undergoes a recovery, it can affect ASEAN economies through many channels, said Bhaskaran.

巴斯卡蘭說(shuō)，隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，它可以通過(guò)許多渠道影響東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

For instance, the rise of demand in China could spill over into rising demand for ASEAN's exports of commodities and manufactured goods, while commodity prices and business confidence could also be boosted, said Bhaskaran, noting prices for commodities such as iron ore, coal and copper are already rising in line with China's recovery.

比如，中國(guó)需求的增長(zhǎng)或?qū)⑹沟脰|盟大宗商品和制成品出口需求上升。同時(shí)，大宗商品價(jià)格和商業(yè)信心也可能得到提振。他指出，鐵礦石、煤和銅等大宗商品價(jià)格已隨中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇而增長(zhǎng)。

As for the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Bhaskaran said the pandemic has not had any impact on participating countries' desire to finalize the agreement according to the timeline.

至于擬議的《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》，巴斯卡蘭說(shuō)，疫情沒(méi)有對(duì)參與國(guó)根據(jù)時(shí)間表最終達(dá)成協(xié)議的愿望產(chǎn)生任何影響。

The RCEP is a proposed free trade agreement between ASEAN and its six FTA partners: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. In March, the Ministry of Commerce said China will continue to advance the signing of the agreement at the end of 2020 as scheduled.

《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》是東盟與中國(guó)、日本、韓國(guó)、印度、澳大利亞和新西蘭六個(gè)自貿(mào)伙伴之間擬議的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定。今年3月，中國(guó)商務(wù)部表示，中國(guó)將繼續(xù)按計(jì)劃推進(jìn)2020年底簽署該協(xié)議。

In addition, Chinese investment either through private channels or via the Belt and Road Initiative could also contribute to investment in ASEAN, Bhaskaran said.

此外，巴斯卡蘭說(shuō)，中國(guó)通過(guò)民間渠道或“一帶一路”倡議進(jìn)行的投資也可以促進(jìn)對(duì)東盟的投資。

China is one of ASEAN's most important sources of foreign direct investment. In 2018, FDI flows from China to ASEAN reached $10.2 billion, or 6.6 percent of ASEAN's total FDI, according to Xinhua News Agency, citing a statement by economic ministers from ASEAN and China.

中國(guó)是東盟最重要的外國(guó)直接投資（FDI）來(lái)源國(guó)之一。新華社援引東盟和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)部長(zhǎng)的一份聲明稱，2018年，中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的FDI達(dá)到102億美元（約合人民幣727億元），占東盟FDI總額的6.6%。

However, Bhaskaran said tourism, a key area for ASEAN-China exchanges, is unlikely to reemerge as a growth driver for some time to come, due to the pandemic.

不過(guò)，巴斯卡蘭表示，由于新冠肺炎疫情，作為東盟與中國(guó)交流的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域，旅游業(yè)在未來(lái)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)不太可能重新成為增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力。

Given the pandemic's continuing impact, Bhaskaran said relaxation of restrictions on cross-border travel, especially for tourism, remains uncertain. And the travel restrictions, which he expects to last till next year, will also make travel less enjoyable, he added.

巴斯卡蘭說(shuō)，鑒于疫情的持續(xù)影響，放松對(duì)跨境旅行的限制，特別是對(duì)旅游的限制，仍然是不確定的。他預(yù)計(jì)旅行限制將持續(xù)到明年，這也會(huì)讓旅行變得不那么愉快。

英文來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)

翻譯&編輯：yaing