美國(guó)商業(yè)內(nèi)幕網(wǎng)8月30日?qǐng)?bào)道稱，美國(guó)知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、羅森伯格研究公司總裁大衛(wèi)·羅森伯格表示，近期一系列信號(hào)提示，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性正在上升。文章摘編如下：

The probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of signals have flashed in recent weeks and months.
在近期（最近幾周和數(shù)月內(nèi)）一系列信號(hào)亮起后，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性正在上升。

That's according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday.
美國(guó)羅森伯格研究公司總裁大衛(wèi)·羅森伯格在8月30日發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中匯編了一份衰退指標(biāo)清單。

"What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked.
他提出：“最準(zhǔn)確的衰退指標(biāo)是什么？這是一個(gè)很難回答的問(wèn)題——為什么不避開(kāi)這個(gè)問(wèn)題，看看所有這些指標(biāo)呢？”

According to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on the precipice of an economic downturn.
羅森伯格表示，在歷史上，一些令人擔(dān)憂的信號(hào)只有在經(jīng)濟(jì)即將陷入衰退時(shí)才會(huì)出現(xiàn)。

"The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said.
羅森伯格稱：“‘指標(biāo)的指標(biāo)’預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?！?/p>

Of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered.
羅森伯格編制的20個(gè)衰退指標(biāo)中，有9個(gè)已經(jīng)觸發(fā)。

Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve, among others.
被觸發(fā)的衰退指標(biāo)包括薩姆規(guī)則、先行指數(shù)和倒掛的收益率曲線等。

"Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg said.
羅森伯格說(shuō)：“目前，我們追蹤的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退指標(biāo)中有45%已經(jīng)觸發(fā)。自1999年以來(lái)，從來(lái)沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)這種情況而不發(fā)生衰退的?！?/p>

The list of signals flashing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024.
自2022年以來(lái)，預(yù)示美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的信號(hào)數(shù)量一直都在穩(wěn)步上升，當(dāng)時(shí)只有10%被觸發(fā)。2023年和2024年上半年，這一比例上升到了25%左右。

But since then, the recession warnings have been growing.
而自那以后，關(guān)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的警告越來(lái)越多。

"Sometimes more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be arriving," Rosenberg said.
羅森伯格說(shuō)：“有時(shí)更多就是更多，這就是一個(gè)很好的例證。觀察不同經(jīng)濟(jì)部門的衰退閾值可以清楚地看出，自2024年中期以來(lái)，一些事情一直在發(fā)生變化——經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能真的要來(lái)了?！?/p>

編輯：董靜
審校：陳丹妮 萬(wàn)月英