摩根士丹利前亞洲區(qū)主席、耶魯大學(xué)法學(xué)院蔡保羅中國(guó)中心高級(jí)研究員斯蒂芬·羅奇表示，中美關(guān)系是世界上最重要的雙邊關(guān)系，中國(guó)兩國(guó)應(yīng)增強(qiáng)互信，共同應(yīng)對(duì)全球挑戰(zhàn)，尤其是在經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系上，美國(guó)應(yīng)摒棄零和博弈思維、積極作為。羅奇認(rèn)為，這些做法能為兩國(guó)之間不斷升級(jí)的緊張關(guān)系開(kāi)辟一條出路，因?yàn)檎`讀只會(huì)導(dǎo)致更多虛假敘事，加劇緊張局勢(shì)。

China and the United States should restore mutual trust by reopening consulates that have been closed and work together on global challenges, abandon a zero-sum trade mindset and engage more robustly, says Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
摩根士丹利前亞洲區(qū)主席、耶魯大學(xué)法學(xué)院蔡保羅中國(guó)中心高級(jí)研究員斯蒂芬·羅奇表示，中美應(yīng)該通過(guò)重開(kāi)兩國(guó)于2020年關(guān)閉的兩個(gè)領(lǐng)事館恢復(fù)互信，共同應(yīng)對(duì)全球挑戰(zhàn)，摒棄零和經(jīng)貿(mào)思維，積極作為。

To do so will offer a way out of an escalating conflict between the two countries because misunderstandings are fueling false narratives that will exacerbate tensions, said Roach, a senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School.
羅奇認(rèn)為，這些做法能為兩國(guó)之間不斷升級(jí)的沖突開(kāi)辟一條出路，因?yàn)檎`讀只會(huì)導(dǎo)致更多虛假敘事，加劇緊張局勢(shì)。

"In the last five years alone we have gone from a trade war to a tech war, which is increasing daily to the early stages of a new Cold War," Roach said. "So the urgency to address this conflict has never been greater."
羅奇稱(chēng)：“在過(guò)去短短五年里，中美就從貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)變成了技術(shù)戰(zhàn)，這種爭(zhēng)端愈演愈烈，已經(jīng)發(fā)展成新冷戰(zhàn)的初期階段。因此，緩和這場(chǎng)沖突迫在眉睫?！?/p>

Disputes over technology have intensified even as disputes over trade have continued, he said.
他表示，中美貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端仍在繼續(xù)，而中美科技爭(zhēng)端仍在加劇。

Rather than just keeping intact tariffs on imports imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump, the administration of President Joe Biden has been increasingly aggressive, Roach said, going after Chinese technology companies, most recently by adding 36 more companies and institutions to its export blacklist on Dec 15.
羅奇表示，拜登政府不僅延續(xù)了特朗普政府對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品征收的關(guān)稅，而且對(duì)華政策越來(lái)越咄咄逼人，對(duì)中國(guó)科技公司進(jìn)行打擊。12月15日，拜登政府又將36家中國(guó)實(shí)體列入美出口管制“實(shí)體清單”。

More than 1,000 Chinese companies have been put on lists of entities and sanctions. The latest listings follow an announcement in early October of export sanctions on Chinese purchases of US-made advanced computing and semiconductor products, with the intent of strangling Chinese advanced technologies.
已經(jīng)有1000多家中企被列入美出口管制“實(shí)體清單”。10月初，美國(guó)公布了《對(duì)向中國(guó)出口的先進(jìn)計(jì)算和半導(dǎo)體制造物項(xiàng)實(shí)施新的出口管制》，意在扼殺中國(guó)先進(jìn)技術(shù)。

"It was good news that the two presidents met in Bali on Nov 14 for over three hours," Roach said. "There have been some diplomatic follow-through efforts based on that, but in my opinion those (efforts) are more than offset by the increased tensions in the technology arena."
羅奇說(shuō)：“11月14日，中美兩國(guó)元首在巴厘島舉行會(huì)晤，歷時(shí)超過(guò)3小時(shí)，這是一個(gè)好消息。在此基礎(chǔ)上，雙方進(jìn)行了一些后續(xù)外交努力，但在我看來(lái)，這些努力被科技領(lǐng)域日益緊張的局勢(shì)所抵消?！?/p>

In his book Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives published last month, Roach sets out a three-pronged strategy for resolving conflict.
在羅奇上個(gè)月出版的《意外沖突：美國(guó)、中國(guó)和虛假敘事的交鋒》一書(shū)中，他提出了三管齊下解決中美沖突的策略。

One of the popular narratives on the US side is to blame China for its massive trade deficit, which largely prompted the Trump administration to launch a trade war with China, he says.
他表示，在美國(guó)，一種流行的觀點(diǎn)將美國(guó)的巨額貿(mào)易逆差歸咎于中國(guó)，這在很大程度上促使特朗普政府與中國(guó)展開(kāi)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。

"America has really no one to blame for its trade deficit other than itself, because we save too little, and when you don't save and you want to grow, you have to import surplus savings from abroad, and you run balance of payments and multilateral trade deficits."
“除了美國(guó)自己，沒(méi)有人要為美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差負(fù)責(zé)，因?yàn)槲覀儍?chǔ)蓄太少，當(dāng)你沒(méi)有儲(chǔ)蓄而想要增長(zhǎng)時(shí)，就必須從國(guó)外進(jìn)口儲(chǔ)蓄盈余，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)國(guó)際收支和多邊貿(mào)易逆差。”

"The whole premise of Accidental Conflict is, as this conflict escalates quickly and dramatically, the false narratives are like gasoline, high octane fuel, that could easily be ignited by a spark," he told China Daily.
羅奇在接受《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》采訪時(shí)表示：“意外沖突的所有前提是，隨著這場(chǎng)沖突迅速而戲劇性地升級(jí)，虛假敘事就像汽油、高辛烷值燃料，很容易被火花點(diǎn)燃?！?/p>

The first step to resolving conflict is to restore trust, to begin dealing jointly with critical issues of mutual and global importance, starting with "low-hanging fruit" such as reopening the two consulates the two countries closed in 2020, restarting student exchange programs and relaxing visa restrictions, Roach said.
羅奇說(shuō)，解決中美沖突的第一步是恢復(fù)信任，開(kāi)始攜手解決雙方和全球重視的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題，可以從“容易實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)”著手，例如，重新開(kāi)放兩國(guó)于2020年關(guān)閉的兩個(gè)領(lǐng)事館，重啟學(xué)生交流項(xiàng)目，放松簽證限制。

In an online discussion organized by the Carter Center and the George H. W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations on Sept 22 last year, China's Ambassador to the US Qin Gang said that facing the abrupt closure of the consulate general in Houston, the Chinese side had no choice but to reciprocate and close the US consulate general in Chengdu.
中國(guó)駐美國(guó)大使秦剛在卡特中心和喬治·布什美中關(guān)系基金會(huì)聯(lián)合舉辦的一次對(duì)話(huà)中表示，面對(duì)美方悍然關(guān)閉中國(guó)駐休斯敦總領(lǐng)館，中方不得不進(jìn)行對(duì)等反制，關(guān)閉了美國(guó)駐成都總領(lǐng)館。

"Let the person who tied the bell on the tiger take it off," Qin said when asked if the US and China had discussed reopening the consulates in Chengdu and Houston.
對(duì)于美中是否開(kāi)始協(xié)商重開(kāi)成都和休斯敦總領(lǐng)館的問(wèn)題，秦剛說(shuō)：“解鈴還須系鈴人?！?/p>

"This is something unilaterally started by the US side, and the US side must act first to resolve it."
“這個(gè)問(wèn)題是美方單方面挑起的，要解決也需要美方首先采取行動(dòng)?！?/p>

Shared responsibility
共同責(zé)任

Roach said that after dealing with the easy issues, the two sides can then proceed to work together on tougher global issues for which they have shared responsibility, such as climate change, global health and cybersecurity.
羅奇表示，在解決了這些容易的問(wèn)題后，雙方可以繼續(xù)在氣候變化、公共衛(wèi)生和網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全等更為棘手的全球問(wèn)題上合作，共擔(dān)責(zé)任。

"But if they remain conflicted, as they are now, and the conflict gets worse, then their ability to tackle these enormous and important global issues will be severely constrained."
“但如果中美仍然像現(xiàn)在這樣沖突不斷，關(guān)系進(jìn)一步惡化，那么雙方解決重大全球問(wèn)題的能力將嚴(yán)重受限?！?/p>

His second proposal is to move away from the bilateral zero-sum trade framework that features tariffs, to end that, and focus more on pro-growth, market-opening initiatives, such as a bilateral investment treaty that focuses on reducing investment barriers.
羅奇的第二點(diǎn)建議是，中美經(jīng)貿(mào)應(yīng)摒棄零和博弈思維，停止加征關(guān)稅等做法，以結(jié)束中美貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端，更關(guān)注促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)的開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)舉措，例如，降低投資壁壘的雙邊投資條約。

In the third part of his strategy for resolving conflict, Roach proposes a new approach to engage China, different from the part-time approach that provides support to summits or the once or twice a year strategic and economic dialogue.
羅奇在第三點(diǎn)建議中提出了一種與中國(guó)接觸的新方式，有別于為中美峰會(huì)提供支持的臨時(shí)接觸或每年一到兩次的戰(zhàn)略和經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)話(huà)。

"My strong view is that we need full-time engagement between senior Chinese and American professionals and diplomats, dealing 24/7, around the clock with all aspects of the relationship," he said of his proposal of establishing a US-China secretariat as a new architecture of engagement.
“我強(qiáng)烈認(rèn)為，我們需要中美高級(jí)專(zhuān)業(yè)人士和外交官之間的專(zhuān)職接觸，全天候處理中美關(guān)系的各個(gè)方面”，羅奇建議建立美中秘書(shū)處，作為一個(gè)專(zhuān)職接觸的新架構(gòu)。

Roach said that the feasibility of the fresh approach is very low, given the political environment, but he would push hard for it because the world's most important bilateral relationship is in a danger zone.
羅奇表示，考慮到政治環(huán)境，新方式的可行性很低，但他會(huì)大力推動(dòng)，因?yàn)槭澜缟献钪匾碾p邊關(guān)系正處于危險(xiǎn)地帶。

來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)
編輯：董靜