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中國助力全球通脹降溫 Nation can help cool soaring global inflation

中國日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng) 2023-02-03 17:59

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多位分析人士表示,中國通脹率處在較低水平,能夠幫助抑制不斷飆升的全球通脹。

An Indian customer shops at a toy store on Thursday at Yiwu International Trade City in Yiwu, Zhejiang province. The complex, the world's biggest small-commodities market, reopened after closing for the Spring Festival holiday in late January. HUANG ZONGZHI/XINHUA

 

China, with its benign inflation rate, is capable of playing a pivotal role in helping cool soaring global inflation and will continue to ensure strong economic recovery and mild price fluctuations this year, analysts and executives said.

分析師和高管表示,中國通脹率處在較低水平,能夠幫助抑制不斷飆升的全球通脹,并確保2023年經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇,物價(jià)水平溫和波動(dòng)。

 

In marked contrast to major advanced economies, which have been plagued by surging inflation amid rising energy and food prices, China has seen its inflation levels remain low and stable, which, analysts said, provides space for further policy easing to shore up the world's second-largest economy.

主要發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體因能源和食品價(jià)格上漲而飽受通脹飆升困擾,與此同時(shí),中國通脹水平持續(xù)保持在較低水平。分析人士表示,這為進(jìn)一步放寬政策以提振世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體提供了空間。

 

"Over the past year, many advanced economies witnessed the biggest surge in inflation in 40 years," said Liu Zhicheng, director of commodity market division at the Academy of Macroeconomic Research's market and price research institute. The academy is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission, or NDRC, China's top economic regulatory body.

中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院市場(chǎng)與價(jià)格研究所大宗商品研究室主任劉志成表示:“過去一年,許多發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體遭遇了40年來最嚴(yán)重的通脹飆升?!?/p>

 

Last year, a number of developed economies, including the United Kingdom and the United States, experienced inflationary whiplash. During the first 11 months of 2022, the inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, was 8 percent in the United States, 8.4 percent in the eurozone and 8.9 percent in the UK, sparking public complaints and protests. Some developing countries have also suffered from high inflation.

去年,包括英國和美國在內(nèi)的眾多發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體都遭受了通貨膨脹沖擊。2022年前11個(gè)月,通貨膨脹率按消費(fèi)者物價(jià)水平衡量,美國為8%,歐元區(qū)為8.4%,英國為8.9%,引發(fā)了公眾抗議。此外,一些發(fā)展中國家也遭遇了高通脹沖擊。

 

Both the Bank of England, Britain's central bank, and the European Central Bank were expected to raise interest rates on Thursday to tame high inflation, ease the cost-of-living crisis and avoid falling into recession. The US Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday.

英國央行和歐洲央行于2月2日加息,以遏制高通脹,緩解生活成本危機(jī),避免陷入衰退。2月1日,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)如期上調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

 

China has had a good record of keeping its overall price levels low and stable. Last year, the country's consumer price index rose by 2 percent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which was well below the country's inflation control target of around 3 percent.

當(dāng)前,中國物價(jià)穩(wěn)定保持在較低水平。根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù),去年,全國居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)同比增長(zhǎng)2%,遠(yuǎn)低于3%左右的通脹控制目標(biāo)。

 

Notably, China's food inflation rate was 2.8 percent and the cost of water, electricity and fuel rose a modest 3 percent in 2022, both significantly lower than in major Western economies, Liu said.

劉志成表示,2022年中國的食品通貨膨脹率為2.8%,水、電和燃料成本小幅上漲3%,均明顯低于西方主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

 

He attributed soaring inflation across the globe to runaway energy and food prices amid geopolitical tensions and the massive fiscal and monetary easing measures in many Western countries.

他將全球通脹飆升歸因于地緣政治局勢(shì)緊張,此外許多西方國家采取大規(guī)模財(cái)政和貨幣寬松措施,導(dǎo)致能源和食品價(jià)格失控。

 

China has managed to deal with imported inflationary pressures with effective measures focused on stabilizing prices of products essential for people's livelihood as well as bulk commodities.

中國采取了一系列有效措施應(yīng)對(duì)輸入性通脹,重點(diǎn)穩(wěn)定重要民生商品和大宗商品價(jià)格。

 

"China's stable price levels are creating an environment that keeps economic performance stable, which also helps tame global inflation," Liu said.

劉志成表示“中國物價(jià)水平穩(wěn)定,為經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定提供了基礎(chǔ),這有助于抑制全球通脹?!?/p>

 

While warning of headwinds from imported inflationary pressures and potential fluctuations in commodity prices, Wan Jinsong, director of the NDRC's Department of Price, said China has solid foundations as well as the confidence and capabilities to maintain overall price stability in 2023.

國家發(fā)改委價(jià)格司司長(zhǎng)萬勁松表示,2023年盡管國際大宗商品價(jià)格可能高位波動(dòng),輸入性通脹壓力仍然存在,但中國物價(jià)保持平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行具有堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ),完全有信心、有能力繼續(xù)保持物價(jià)總體穩(wěn)定。

 

Wan said at a recent news conference that the country has sufficient supplies of goods essential for people's livelihood, a stable energy supply and an improved system for ensuring price and supply stability.

近日在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上萬勁松表示,中國重要民生商品供應(yīng)充足,基礎(chǔ)能源保障有力,保供穩(wěn)價(jià)體系進(jìn)一步健全。

 

NBS data showed China's CPI grew by 1.8 percent year-on-year in December, while the inflation rate in the US was 6.5 percent in the same month.

國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示,中國12月CPI同比增長(zhǎng)1.8%,而美國同月通脹率為6.5%。

 

Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank,estimated that China's CPI will remain at a moderate level this year given the gradual pickup in demand and the country's sufficient supply of daily necessities.

光大銀行分析師周茂華估計(jì),隨著需求逐步回升和中國生活必需品的持續(xù)充足供應(yīng),今年中國的CPI將保持在溫和水平。

 

"Unlike many other economies, China has not adopted massive policy stimulus over the past few years," he said. "Given its stable inflation levels, the country has ample room and plenty of policy tools in reserves to support the economy."

他稱,“不同于其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體,過去幾年中國沒有采取大規(guī)模的政策刺激措施。鑒于其穩(wěn)定的通脹水平,中國有足夠的空間和充足的政策工具儲(chǔ)備來支持經(jīng)濟(jì)?!?/p>

 

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said that his team thinks inflation is not a major concern for China in 2023, and they expect the policy stance to remain accommodative.

野村證券首席中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陸挺表示,他的團(tuán)隊(duì)認(rèn)為通脹不是中國2023年的主要擔(dān)憂,他們預(yù)計(jì)政策將繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)健寬松。

 

The Chinese Academy of Sciences' Center for Forecasting Science estimates that China's CPI will rise about 1.8 percent in 2023, while the producer price index will decline by about 0.4 percent.

中國科學(xué)院預(yù)測(cè)科學(xué)研究中心預(yù)計(jì),2023年中國CPI將上漲約1.8%,而生產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù)下降約0.4%。

 

Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomist at Everbright Securities, warned that the robust recovery in consumption of services may add to "structural inflation pressures".

光大證券首席宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家高瑞東警告稱,消費(fèi)修復(fù)過程中,也可能出現(xiàn)一定程度的結(jié)構(gòu)性通脹。

 

China is taking a more pro-growth stance, giving priority to expanding domestic demand and spurring consumption. The local governments have mapped out detailed plans in an attempt to put growth back onto the fast track.

中國正采取更加有利于增長(zhǎng)的措施,優(yōu)先擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需和刺激消費(fèi)。地方政府已經(jīng)制定了詳細(xì)計(jì)劃,試圖讓經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)重回快車道。

 

On Tuesday, the Beijing Municipal Government released a document on key tasks for 2023, urging more efforts to boost consumption, including spurring consumption in housing, new energy vehicles and elder care.

2月1日,北京市政府發(fā)布2023年十大主要任務(wù),敦促加大力度提振消費(fèi),包括刺激住房、新能源汽車和養(yǎng)老消費(fèi)。

 

There have been initial signs of recovery in consumption thanks to such policies in other provincial-level regions.

得益于其他省級(jí)地區(qū)的此類政策,消費(fèi)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了初步復(fù)蘇跡象。

 

In Guangdong province, Guangzhou's Beijing Road shopping area achieved a business turnover of 345 million yuan ($51.3 million) in the weeklong Spring Festival holiday, up 19.4 percent year-on-year, official data showed.

官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在為期一周的春節(jié)假期中,廣州市北京路商業(yè)街實(shí)現(xiàn)3.45億元人民幣的營業(yè)額,同比增長(zhǎng)19.4%。

 

Gao said in an article published in China Finance magazine that the country will also likely see a notable rebound in consumption of services, such as transportation, catering, accommodation and entertainment, and prices for services will go up in the post-COVID period.

高瑞東在《中國金融》雜志中表示,疫后交通、餐飲、住宿和娛樂等接觸性服務(wù)消費(fèi)可能出現(xiàn)顯著反彈,服務(wù)價(jià)格也會(huì)上調(diào)。

 

He said the government should take more steps to keep prices stable, with a key focus on ensuring the supply of food and energy, assisting companies to stabilize employment and promoting the rebound of services industry.

他表示,中國應(yīng)采取更多措施穩(wěn)定物價(jià),重點(diǎn)是保障食品和能源供應(yīng),協(xié)助企業(yè)穩(wěn)定就業(yè),促進(jìn)服務(wù)業(yè)回暖。

 

來源:中國日?qǐng)?bào)

編譯:實(shí)習(xí)生 王露燕 編輯:劉世東

 

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