最近雙語君搞了個AI內(nèi)測賬號，每天沉迷于請AI作畫。下邊是幾張雙語君請AI畫的畫，大家猜猜都輸入了什么關(guān)鍵詞？

　　答案

　　五彩斑斕的黑

　　答案

　　魚香肉絲

　　答案

　　過橋米線

就在過去這幾個月里，以ChatGPT為典型的一類“善解人意”的AI忽然火了起來。這類AI的實用性特別高，能畫畫、能翻譯句子、能寫報告，最重要的是人指揮TA做這些事情都不用費心費力輸入命令，只需要像聊天一樣打字即可，不費勁。

AI理解人類語言，有點像坐標(biāo)系

中國人民大學(xué)高瓴人工智能學(xué)院助理教授周驍表示，ChatGPT這類AI可以叫做自然語言型AI，其主要學(xué)習(xí)方向就是理解分析人類語言。在這之前，人機博弈型AI早在2016年左右就實現(xiàn)了突破，阿爾法狗戰(zhàn)勝世界冠軍柯潔就是最好的例子；圖像識別型AI則是在過去幾年達(dá)到滿意的精度，能廣泛應(yīng)用于各種人臉識別、車牌識別的場景。

Zhou Xiao, an assistant professor at Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China, listed a few examples of AIs that people can use in daily life. There is the gaming AIs that can compete with humans playing games, such as AlphaGo developed by DeepMind around 2016, which features a search algorithm, deep neural networks and reinforcement learning.

There are also image recognition AIs that can recognize car plate numbers for traffic management and human faces in the hunt for suspects, which made breakthroughs around 2020 with their precision rate reaching 99 percent.

至于最近大火的ChatGPT則是語言模型，通過多種人工智能技術(shù)和算法實現(xiàn)了對自然語言的理解和生成，從而能夠與人類進(jìn)行自然的對話交互，它的出現(xiàn)讓人工智能強勢地摘掉了“人工智障”的帽子。GPT的全稱叫生成預(yù)訓(xùn)練轉(zhuǎn)換器(Generative Pretrained Transformer)，復(fù)旦大學(xué)附屬中山醫(yī)院院長、中國科學(xué)院院士葛均波曾經(jīng)很形象地解釋過這三個詞：

Generative是生成的意思，表示它區(qū)別于既往搜索引擎，能自己生成創(chuàng)作出新的內(nèi)容；Pretrained是預(yù)先訓(xùn)練意思，表示它之前已經(jīng)在一些數(shù)據(jù)庫里經(jīng)過訓(xùn)練過，已經(jīng)具有一些自身邏輯及判斷；Transformer是一種全新的算法架構(gòu)，能夠在處理長文本時更高效，訓(xùn)練時間更短。

百姓網(wǎng)創(chuàng)始人、CEO王建碩試圖通過坐標(biāo)系的概念解釋GPT識別人類語言的原理。“好比在三維空間中，知道三個坐標(biāo)值就能確定一個點的位置，這三個坐標(biāo)可以叫做參數(shù)，”他邊比劃邊說：“但當(dāng)我們提起某個物體時，可能需要上千個參數(shù)才能確定這一物體究竟是什么。比如蘋果的參數(shù)有能吃、水果、顏色紅或綠、在樹上生長、一般直徑不超過10厘米等等。類似參數(shù)越多，我們就越能精準(zhǔn)確定某物體?！?/p>

“That algorithm works in a way like finding a point in a space,” Wang Jianshuo, founder and CEO of Baixing AI, a company building the basic infrastructure for a world that bots talk with bots, tried to explain how it works in plain language: “With three parameters one can locate a point in a 3-dimensional coordinate system. In human language one might need thousands of parameters to describe an object; For example an apple needs parameters such as edible, fruit, green or red in color, grown from a tree, generally smaller than 10 cms in diameter to be defined. The more parameters that can be defined, the more accurately AI can find the right point.”

當(dāng)蘋果和香蕉同時出現(xiàn)時，能吃、甜、水果等參數(shù)就不夠了，光憑這三個參數(shù)誰也沒有辦法確定講述的是蘋果還是香蕉。這時候就得增加參數(shù)，比如形狀是長條還是類似圓形？顏色是紅綠還是黃？“這就是GPT的基本算法，本質(zhì)上是建了一個上千甚至更高維度的模型。其實人腦中也有無數(shù)個這樣的模型并且在隨時調(diào)用，只是我們不會感受到罷了?！?/p>

Wang cited apples and bananas as two examples. With parameters such “edible”, “sweet” and “fruit”, neither humans nor an AI could distinguish them from each other. But with the parameter concerning the shape included, namely “l(fā)ong” or “round”, one could make a guess. With the parameter of the color being red, green or yellow, one could be surer about his/her judgment. “That’s also how GPT works — Most of the times it takes thousands of parameters for AI to define an object like we humans do,” he said: “we just do not realize that we are doing that.”

所以有時候AI對句子的理解異于我們常人。比如下圖就是AI畫的驢肉火燒，肉、火、燒的元素都齊備了，驢則以兩只長耳朵的形式出現(xiàn)。

AI畫的驢肉火燒

要從如此多的維度描述一個物體，其計算量自然可想而知。據(jù)復(fù)旦大學(xué)計算機科學(xué)技術(shù)學(xué)院教授張軍平表示，ChatGPT大概用了285000個CPU和10000多顆GPU、其訓(xùn)練文本數(shù)據(jù)達(dá)到45Tb (1Tb=1024Gb)，訓(xùn)練成本高達(dá)1200萬美元。

在一篇題為“ChatGPT：潛力、期待與限制”的論文中，張軍平進(jìn)一步解釋道，ChatGPT主要受益于大型語言模型（Large Language Model），使用語言模型（LM）用大規(guī)模數(shù)據(jù)訓(xùn)練龐大的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。

“ChatGPT會生成與用戶意圖相匹配的多個回合的響應(yīng)。ChatGPT捕獲先前的會話上下文來回答某些假設(shè)問題，這大大增強了會話交互模式下的用戶體驗?！?/p>

“It was based on the training of 45 Terabytes of data that ChatGPT made its breakthrough early this year, for which purpose it used about 285,000 CPUs and over 10,000 model A100 GPUs,” said Zhang Junping, a professor on computer technology at School of Computer Science, Fudan University, who stressed that the amount of data the language model involves is of key importance to AIs like GPT in an academic essay ChatGPT: Potentials, prospects, and limitations: “ChatGPT benefits mainly from Large Language Models(LLMs) that train huge neural network models with large-scale data using Language Models(LMs).”

“ChatGPT generates responses that match the user’s intent with multiple turns. ChatGPT captures previous conversational contexts to answer certain hypothetical questions, which greatly enhances the user experiences in conversational interaction.”

AI畫的日之夕矣羊牛下來

為測試這些AI對人類語言的理解能力，雙語君分別在三個AI對話框中輸入“anlyze how Artifical Intelligenz works”，拼寫錯誤都被輕松忽略。王建碩則教了個更直觀的測試方法：問AI《家庭問答》的主播年齡的平方根是多少？要回答這一問題，AI需要搞清楚《家庭問答》是什么、其主播是誰、年齡多大了，最后再算一次平方根。

簡直完美。

For all three AIs of the type, a test sentence is input to “anlyze how Artifical Intelligenz works” with the spelling errors intentionally left uncorrected. All three neglected the errors as if they didn’t exist and just talked on.

Wang offered as a test of the ability of ChatGPT the following question: “What’s the root of The Family Feudhost’s age?” To solve that problem, ChatGPT has to find out what The Family Feudis, who hosts it, how old he is and then calculate the root.

AI成熟后，連上班關(guān)門都會變得簡單

前邊講的幾種AI都深刻改變了我們的生活。比如人機博弈AI成熟后，游戲行業(yè)發(fā)展得到加速，人機對戰(zhàn)不再是“虐菜”的代名詞；人臉識別AI成熟后，“刷臉”也成為了人們的主流支付方式。

AI has already launched a revolution not only in the computer industry, but also in daily lives. In gaming, AIs have made major progress over the past half a decade, people now can play games such as chess or GO with smart AIs as opponents so as to sharpen their own skills. Image recognition AIs have also become mature, people could easily open a lock or pay for a deal by holding theirsmartphone in front of their face.Now with GPT making fast developments, the way people interact with computers might changeagain.

在風(fēng)云學(xué)會陳經(jīng)看來，GPT的發(fā)展將給人機交流方式帶來革命性的改變。看看電腦的發(fā)展歷史，電腦“輸出”一直在進(jìn)步，從文字到圖像再到今天絢麗的建模與視頻，但“輸入”始終還是電腦鼠標(biāo)，直到幾年前聲控才走入大家的生活，Siri還經(jīng)常聽不懂人話。隨著GPT的發(fā)展與聲音識別的結(jié)合，聲控的準(zhǔn)確性將大大提高。

According to Chen Jing, a researcher at Fengyun Institute of Science, Technology and Strategy, computers still receive instructions and requests from human users in a way that is quite inefficient, via akeyboard and mouse, as the user must click on some icon or type in something to make the computer act as required. With speech recognition and face recognition AI technologiesimproving significantly in the 2010s, voice recognition became a newmeansof input.

3月15日，Open AI發(fā)布GPT-4，在GPT-3的基礎(chǔ)上增加了圖像識別功能。這就為人機進(jìn)一步高效互動提供了可能性，比如目前還比較初級的手勢控制將更快成熟。

The GPT-4 technology, released by Open AI on March 15, propels the process another step forward. Being able to recognize images in a more accurate, reliable way, the GPT-4 technology can understand humans in a more efficient way.

In Chen’s view, the GPT-4 technologymay enable humans to make commands to machines via gestures. For example, currently there are already smart appliances that people can talk to and tell them what to do. In the future they will be able to wave and be caught by a camera on the appliance, a technology that exists now but is not yet ripe.

陳經(jīng)甚至設(shè)想了一個場景：早上離家上班時，不用再鎖門關(guān)燈，而只需要對著大門口的攝像頭揮手道別。AI立即會領(lǐng)會主人的意思，關(guān)燈反鎖以待主人歸來；等主人回來了，再對大門招招手，門就自動開了，走到哪個屋子里燈光也自動打開，躺到沙發(fā)上電視也會自己開開。

“Imagine that you are leaving home for office,” Chen said: “currently you have to turn off the lights and lock the door. With GPT-4, all you need is to wave goodbye to the camera at your gate, then the AI will understand you and turn off all unnecessary appliances, close the door and lock it for you. When you come home, just smile at the camera and it will wake everythingup. That’s not only because the AI can recognize your face based on the technology that became ripe around 2020, but also because it can understand your gestures and facial expressionsbased on GPT-4.”

AI會取代人類的工作嗎?

大家并不是都認(rèn)同人工智能的出色表現(xiàn)的。據(jù)雙語君觀察，這種認(rèn)同與否往往與一個人從事的行業(yè)有關(guān)系。

比如，一位畫家就對AI作畫這件事比較抵觸?！癆I畫的畫是沒有靈魂的”，他不無憤慨地表示：“其實那都不應(yīng)該叫作畫啦。AI不過是從網(wǎng)上扒拉點素材，再拼起來而已啦?！?br>

Not everybody is happy with AI’s growing abilities. “The images drawn by AI are soulless”, said Xi Li (pseudo name), a 41-year-old painter, with a little anger: “They can help humans, but never replace human hands.”

Then he went further: “We don’t call the deed drawing — AI is only collecting materials online and sticking them together.”

AI獲獎畫作《太空歌劇院》引發(fā)爭議

再比如，一位強烈要求匿名的科幻作者對AI寫稿表示鄙視，認(rèn)為AI不可能像人類一樣把握各種詞匯的運用。那怎么看“文無第一、武無第二”呢？這位作家表示同意這句話，但再三強調(diào)“AI寫的小說抓不住讀者的心”。

Similarly, a science fiction writer who hopes to stay anonymous said that AI can never write as good as professional writers do. “There is no yardstick to measure how good an essay is, but the ones written by AI just do not strike people in the heart.”

社科院人口與勞動經(jīng)濟所研究員屈小博教授一直研究AI對就業(yè)的影響，他也很理解這些人的感受?！按蠹叶紦?dān)心自己的工作被取代嘛，”他笑笑說：“我們這些研究員也擔(dān)心啊。”

For Qu Xiaobo, a professor at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics and deputy director of the Human Resource Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), that reflects people’s worries about their jobs being taken away by an AI. “Such concerns are understandable,” he said. “Even we professors worry about being replaced by AI professors.”

不過屈教授總體還是持樂觀態(tài)度的，因為他覺得AI消滅舊崗位的同時也會帶來新崗位。他表示勞動經(jīng)濟學(xué)里有個“全要素生產(chǎn)率”的概念，AI能在很大程度上提高全社會的生產(chǎn)率，從而創(chuàng)造更多的社會財富以供分配，也需要更多的崗位。

But Qu holds a positive attitude toward employment in the age of AI. “While taking jobs, AI creates new jobs, too,” he said. “Its general effect upon the market depends on how many jobs will disappear and how many will emerge. AI willtheoretically increase the Total Factor Productivity(TFP) of society, which means it should create more jobs than it replaces.”

如果在招聘網(wǎng)站上搜索帶AI的招聘崗位，“AI顧問”、“AI工程師”、“AI指導(dǎo)”基本都能占據(jù)好幾頁，而且薪水看起來不算低。屈教授管這些崗位叫“人機交互崗位”，認(rèn)為這種崗位會越來越多。

If one searches “AI” on several domestic job websites, new jobs involving AI released for weeks even days such as “AI consultant”, “AI engineer”, “AI tutor” will emerge and cover almost tens of pages, with promised wages ranging from 15,000 to 30,000 yuan ($4,368) in Beijing, the capital with an average monthly salary around 15,000 yuan for 2022. Qu said these are the newly emerging jobs he refers to, as quite many are dealing with AI, or what he called “jobs for human-AI interactions”.

AI相關(guān)招聘崗位

王建碩更是比較樂觀，他還表示每次科技進(jìn)步都會消滅舊崗位帶來新崗位。“汽車發(fā)明了，馬車夫這個工種慢慢淘汰了，但汽車司機是不是比那時的馬車夫多多了？待遇也好吧？飛機發(fā)明出來，不就有了飛行員這個職業(yè)？而且有了飛機大家的生活水平也被帶著提高了不少。AI進(jìn)步越快，我們的總體生活就越好?！?/p>

His view is echoed by Wang, who said that new jobs will be created with the fast development of AI. “Actually with every major technological progress new jobs emerged,” he said. “With the invention of automobiles there was the need for drivers, while with the invention of planes we got pilots, and people’s general living standards have been increasing with these progresses because the general productivity of society was increased. The faster AI progresses, the easier life for people will be.”

不過屈教授強調(diào)，對個人來說壓力還是有的，而且不小，因為自己的技能未必能適配新的崗位，要小心被勞動力市場的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾所擠壓。他的意見是，作為個人要終身學(xué)習(xí)、努力適應(yīng)新情況，作為國家與社會則需要重視這一問題，給勞動者提供足夠的培訓(xùn)與適應(yīng)機制，盡量最小化甚至避免結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾帶來的陣痛。

However, for individuals, how to keep one’s job remains a challenge because possibly not everyone has the skills needed for the new jobs. Qu said that phenomenon has an academic term “structural mismatch”. But he added that’s not unique to AI,but has been a common occurrence throughouthistory because technology progresses all the time. The current difficulties for college graduates to find jobs, he said, are also partly the result of a “structural mismatch”. To solve that, individuals need to keep learning new things so as to both have experiences and skills. Qu also stressed the State’s role in providing employees with better training so that they can constantly update their skills to meet the changes in the job market.

不會“追求幸?！笔茿I的死穴

作為一名畢業(yè)于自動化專業(yè)、參與過人工智能研發(fā)的記者，筆者認(rèn)為，人類有一個特性AI目前趕不上，在肉眼可見的將來也趕不上，那就是對美好生活的向往。

AI is smart, but the inability to pursue happiness is an uncrossable line that distinguishes humans from AI, so far at least.

這個表述聽起來似乎有點大，其實和人們的生活連接十分緊密，因為人類社會就是在不斷地追求幸福中前進(jìn)的。原始人厭倦了靠雙腳丈量大地的日子，所以發(fā)明了車輪，后來又發(fā)明了火車汽車；人類不滿足于被囚禁在陸地上，老想去探索海洋，由此才發(fā)明了獨木舟、木船以及后來的輪船；人類羨慕鳥兒的翅膀，想在天空自由地翱翔，于是飛機火箭一個個從夢想成為了現(xiàn)實。

某種意義上，是人類對美好生活的向往倒逼了技術(shù)進(jìn)步，從而推動了歷史的車輪滾滾向前。

The word might sound too high-tone, but almost every major technological progress has been the outcome of people’s pursuit of a better life. People wanted to travel over the sea, so they invented the canoe, boats and ships. People wanted to save the trouble of walking on foot, so they invented the train and automobiles. People wanted to fly in the sky and to the moon, so they invented the airplane and the rocket. To a great degree, it is our ancestors’ pursuit of a better, more convenient life that has shaped how we live today.

到目前為止所有的AI都沒有追求幸福的能力。它們就像最頂尖的仆人，訓(xùn)練有素反應(yīng)迅捷，能在最短時間內(nèi)解決人類提出的所有問題與需求，卻唯獨沒有自己提出需求的能力。不提出需求也就沒法進(jìn)步，就只能止步于滿足當(dāng)下的循環(huán)。

如果以人類目前的技術(shù)水平創(chuàng)造出一個人工智能世界，那這個世界將能夠順暢運行卻無法進(jìn)步。原因很簡單，沒有進(jìn)步的需求，人工智能在本質(zhì)上只是人類編寫的一段段程序，能夠在已有的材料中精中取精建造大廈，卻永遠(yuǎn)不會想著給這個世界增添片瓦。

But that’s exactly what ChatGPT, or any other kind of AI, lacks. AI in essence is sequence of codes written by humans to make daily life better. AI does not have its own pursuit. It does not dream of improving the conditions for itself, which prevents it from progressing on its own. It has the potential of designing an airplane, but it will never do so unless given instruction to do so by a human, which makes its progress dependent on humans.

有時候“求生欲”也是進(jìn)步的一種動力，而這恰恰是生命的專屬。當(dāng)生命在38億年前誕生于地球上時，就已經(jīng)注定了生存繁衍的本能，其一切活動都是為了更好地生存，為此才能改變世界；人工智能就不一樣了，不過是代碼，是人類為解決問題而創(chuàng)造出來的，其本能是解決問題。這就決定了二者“主”和“仆”的區(qū)別，是被服務(wù)與服務(wù)的根本差別。

只有生命才想著給自己創(chuàng)造一個更好的環(huán)境，只有人類作為智慧生命有能力給自己創(chuàng)造這樣的環(huán)境，人工智能還沒法達(dá)到這樣的境界。

In a philosophical sense, the pursuit of a better life has been carried in the genes of every creature for 3.8 billion years, since the primal life came into being on this planet. Since that moment, each species has continually evolved so as to win the competition to survive. To be more accurate, the instinct to survive, to continue existing as a life is the original driving force of the pursuit of happiness, but AI, whether GPT and other AI technologies, lack that driving force. They are merely long sequences of code that people write to make human lives better, for which purpose their own existence is not important. After all, AI is with a history of only decades, while that of life is hundreds of millions years.

王建碩說他們曾經(jīng)做過測試，問AI生命的本質(zhì)是什么，根據(jù)回答再一句句追問，結(jié)果AI答了三天三夜。他覺得有了這么強的思考能力，AI終究會獲得這種求生欲，從而想著改變自己的境遇。至于完成這個突變所需要的時間，他認(rèn)為是五年甚至更短，但機器真的實施求生欲可能要非常久遠(yuǎn)。

五年不過一瞬間，讓我們拭目以待。

Talking about the question, Wang Jianshuosaid he once asked his AI the question about the meaning of life, which inspired the latter to think and think and think, answer and answer and answer, and for two whole days it had been explaining this. “Ultimately AI will gain the instinct to survive”, he said at last: “I trust these products we humans make and maybe all it needs is another five years or even shorter time span, but it might take longer time to implement it.”

On which side will you bet?

記者：張周項
編輯：朱迪齊
實習(xí)生：姚欣可