今年以來(lái)，我國(guó)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)持續(xù)改善。多位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家普遍預(yù)計(jì)，未來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇動(dòng)能強(qiáng)勁，一季度GDP同比增速在4%左右。

China's major economic indicators have continued to improve since the start of the year. With stronger market expectations, the country's economic development is picking up. A number of economists believe that China's economic recovery will see a strong momentum, expecting GDP growth in the first quarter to be around four percent on a yearly basis, according to a report by Securities Times on Monday.

《證券日?qǐng)?bào)》周一發(fā)布的報(bào)告稱(chēng)，今年以來(lái)，我國(guó)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)持續(xù)改善，市場(chǎng)預(yù)期加快好轉(zhuǎn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展仍在企穩(wěn)回升之中。多位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家普遍預(yù)計(jì)，未來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇動(dòng)能強(qiáng)勁，一季度GDP同比增速在4%左右。

Industrial output increased by 2.4 percent year-on-year in the first two months, and the service sector production index rose by 5.5 percent on a yearly basis in the same period.

1月份至2月份工業(yè)增加值累計(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)2.4%，服務(wù)業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)累計(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)5.5%。

In March, the manufacturing PMI remained at a high level and the non-manufacturing PMI continued to rise. Regarding the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year economic growth may further accelerate, said Bian Quanshui, chief macroeconomic researcher at Western Securities.

西部證券宏觀首席分析師邊泉水表示，3月份制造業(yè)PMI維持高位、非制造業(yè)PMI繼續(xù)上行，疊加去年同期基數(shù)偏低，經(jīng)濟(jì)同比增速可能進(jìn)一步加快。

The economic recovery since the year's beginning has been better than expected, Bian said, adding that GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to be higher than expected, at around 3.4 to 4 percent.

總體上看，年初以來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)回升好于預(yù)期。一季度GDP同比增速可能高于預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)3.4%至4%左右的增長(zhǎng)。

GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be around 4.0 percent year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2022, said Feng Lin, a researcher with Golden Credit Rating.

東方金誠(chéng)高級(jí)分析師馮琳表示，一季度GDP有望同比增長(zhǎng)4.0%左右，增速比2022年四季度加快1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

The rapid recovery of household consumption and the high growth of infrastructure investment in the first quarter are the main driving forces for the economic recovery in the first quarter, Feng said, adding that resilient manufacturing investment and the diminishing drag effect of real estate investment have all boosted the economic growth.

馮琳表示，一季度助力經(jīng)濟(jì)回升的主要推動(dòng)力有兩個(gè)，首先是居民消費(fèi)較快回升。其次是基建投資保持高增長(zhǎng)，制造業(yè)投資韌性強(qiáng)，地產(chǎn)投資的拖累效應(yīng)在減弱。

Rising market demand is also playing a certain role in boosting confidence in manufacturing investment, which will remain resilient in the short term, the researcher said.

當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)需求上升，也對(duì)制造業(yè)投資信心起到一定提振作用。短期內(nèi)制造業(yè)投資仍會(huì)保持較強(qiáng)韌性。

According to a research report by Great Wall Securities, GDP in the first quarter is projected to rebound to around 4.3 percent, of which government consumption expenditure and capital formation, important supporting forces for the economic recovery in the first quarter, will be about 0.8 percentage points and 2 percentage points, respectively.

長(zhǎng)城證券研報(bào)顯示，測(cè)算一季度GDP已經(jīng)回升到4.3%左右，其中政府消費(fèi)支出和資本形成分別拉動(dòng)約0.8和2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，是一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)回升的重要支撐力量。

As domestic consumption is key to economic growth, macro policies need to continue to boost consumption, stabilize investment and boost market confidence, Feng added.

馮琳認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前要更加倚重內(nèi)需，宏觀政策需要在促消費(fèi)、穩(wěn)投資、提振市場(chǎng)信心等方面持續(xù)發(fā)力。

來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)

編輯：yaning