未來一個(gè)時(shí)期，我國國內(nèi)市場主導(dǎo)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán)的特征會更加明顯，努力擴(kuò)大居民消費(fèi)、充分釋放內(nèi)需潛力，成為形成強(qiáng)大國內(nèi)市場、發(fā)揮我國超大規(guī)模市場優(yōu)勢的重要方面。

Though the recent decline in deposit rates is seen as part of the country's efforts to energize consumption, economists have divided thoughts on how far the move will push consumption. Going forward, experts are calling for more forceful and prompt measures to boost consumer confidence.

盡管最近存款利率的下調(diào)被視為國家刺激消費(fèi)努力的一部分，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對此舉將在多大程度上推動消費(fèi)存在分歧。展望未來，專家們呼吁采取更有力、更及時(shí)的措施來提振消費(fèi)者信心。

Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomist at Everbright Securities, said that the current high level of deposits and weak household sector loans are primarily due to a decline in household risk appetites and their tendency toward precautionary savings against uncertainties.

光大證券首席宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家高瑞東表示，目前的高存款水平和家庭部門貸款疲軟主要是由于家庭風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好下降以及傾向于預(yù)防性儲蓄以應(yīng)對不確定性。

"Ultimately, the restoration of consumer confidence can only rely on improvements in employment and income expectations," he said.

他說：“最終，消費(fèi)者信心的恢復(fù)只能依賴于就業(yè)和收入預(yù)期的改善?！?/p>

A research report issued by GF Securities on May 28 showed that the tendency of households to keep their money in saving accounts instead of spending it is still surging. The value of outstanding household bank wealth reached 26.6 trillion yuan as of May 26, pointing to an increase of 400 billion yuan compared to April 30. Such value had already seen a significant increase of 1.2 trillion yuan in April.

廣發(fā)證券5月28日發(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告顯示，家庭部門將錢存在儲蓄賬戶而非消費(fèi)的趨勢仍在上升。截至5月26日，銀行理財(cái)存續(xù)規(guī)模達(dá)26.6萬億元，較4月30日增長4000億元。4月份，銀行理財(cái)存續(xù)規(guī)模曾大幅增長1.2萬億元。

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said it will be challenging to push for notable consumption momentum and more policy support is needed.

摩根士丹利中國首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家邢自強(qiáng)表示，推動消費(fèi)將是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)，需要更多的政策支持。

"Structurally, consumption growth is unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. We expect the potential growth for private consumption will be 4.8 percent for the year 2024, which is slightly lower than pre-COVID-19 trend," he said, adding that the current uncertainty in employment is part of the reason behind the bumpy recovery in consumption.

他說：“從結(jié)構(gòu)上看，消費(fèi)增長不太可能恢復(fù)到新冠疫情之前的水平。預(yù)計(jì)2024年民間消費(fèi)的潛在增長率為4.8%，略低于新冠疫情前的趨勢。”他補(bǔ)充說，目前就業(yè)的不確定性是消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇不穩(wěn)定的原因之一。

More direct and prompt policy support is therefore required to fuel the consumption market and more effectively boost this year's growth, experts said. Gao suggested that a large-scale government issuance of consumer vouchers could have a more direct impact on the retail spending than a lower deposit rate.

因此，專家們表示，需要更直接、更及時(shí)的政策支持來刺激消費(fèi)市場，更有效地促進(jìn)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。高瑞東建議，相較于降低存款利率，政府大規(guī)模發(fā)行消費(fèi)券可能會對零售業(yè)消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生更直接的影響。

"Since the employment situation among young people remains severe and the willingness of spending among households remains unstable, the consumption sector may see an uneven recovery this year," he said. "We believe that a large-scale issuance of consumption vouchers is feasible to quickly drive growth."

他說：“由于青年群體就業(yè)形勢嚴(yán)峻，居民消費(fèi)意愿尚未企穩(wěn)，今年消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的恢復(fù)可能出現(xiàn)分化。我們認(rèn)為，大規(guī)模發(fā)放消費(fèi)券對于快速推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是可行的?！?/p>

He suggested that consumption vouchers worth 300 billion yuan be distributed to households.

他建議向家庭發(fā)放價(jià)值3000億元的消費(fèi)券。

"Such an amount of vouchers will generate an additional 1 trillion yuan in consumption, contributing to a 0.62 percentage point increase in GDP growth," Gao said.

他說：“若發(fā)放3000億消費(fèi)券，可撬動1萬億消費(fèi)增量，拉動GDP增長0.62個(gè)百分點(diǎn)?！?/p>

He said that the stimulus effect of issuing consumption vouchers can be significantly higher in underdeveloped regions than in developed regions. In addition, the issuance of these coupons can lean more heavily toward low-income and unemployed groups, who can use the coupons for daily essentials in retail and living.

他說，欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)發(fā)放消費(fèi)券的刺激效果明顯高于發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)。此外，這些消費(fèi)券的發(fā)行可以更多地向低收入和失業(yè)群體傾斜，他們可以使用這些消費(fèi)券購買零售品和生活必需品。

Targeted consumption vouchers can be distributed in sectors like dining, accommodations, tourism and autos, catering to the specific consumption needs of different groups, Gao added.

他補(bǔ)充說，消費(fèi)券可以按類別在餐飲、住宿、旅游和汽車等領(lǐng)域發(fā)放，以滿足不同群體的特定消費(fèi)需求。

來源：中國日報(bào)

編輯：yaning