今年6月以來，多國(guó)出現(xiàn)極端高溫天氣，迎創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高溫，不僅對(duì)民眾生活生產(chǎn)帶來“烤”驗(yàn)，也令科學(xué)家們感到擔(dān)憂。氣象專家指出，人類活動(dòng)所導(dǎo)致的氣候變化和厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象等因素疊加，導(dǎo)致了今夏的高溫天氣。隨著厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象卷土重來，極端天氣或?qū)⒏l發(fā)。世界氣象組織（WMO）預(yù)測(cè)，未來五年，全球氣溫可能會(huì)飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平。

熱浪來襲 多國(guó)開啟“炙烤模式”

Even though summer has only just begun, record heatwaves are already being set. Last week Beijing logged its hottest June day since records began, at 41C. In Texas, a deadly heatwave is entering its third week – a number of records have already been broken across the state, including a blistering 115F (46.1C) reading in Del Rio and 116F (46.6C) in Cotulla. In India, morgues and hospitals became overwhelmed after temperatures hit 45C in some areas – at least 96 people reportedly died from heat-aggravated conditions. 
據(jù)英國(guó)《衛(wèi)報(bào)》27日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管夏天才剛剛開始，但創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的熱浪已經(jīng)來襲。上周，中國(guó)北京迎來史上最熱六月天，最高氣溫達(dá)41攝氏度。在美國(guó)得克薩斯州，致命熱浪持續(xù)至第三周，該州多地氣溫紀(jì)錄被打破，德爾里奧和科圖拉分別創(chuàng)下46.1攝氏度、46攝氏度的高溫紀(jì)錄。在印度，一些地區(qū)氣溫最高達(dá)到45攝氏度，停尸房和醫(yī)院人滿為患——據(jù)報(bào)道，至少有96人死于高溫。

“Definitely globally we are seeing more heat-related deaths as temperatures rise,” said Dr. Christopher Sampson, an emergency physician at MU Health.
密蘇里大學(xué)健康中心急診醫(yī)生克里斯托弗·桑普森表示：“隨著氣溫升高，全球各地肯定會(huì)發(fā)生更多高溫致死案例?！?/p>

Being exposed to these high temperatures can cause damage when body temperatures rise to 104 degrees or higher. It can occur as quickly as 30 minutes.
在高溫環(huán)境下，當(dāng)體溫上升到40度以上時(shí)，可能會(huì)危及健康。這一過程最快可能在30分鐘內(nèi)發(fā)生。

People with high blood pressure, people who work or exercise outside, and people over the age of 65 are most at risk. But it can happen to anyone. Health Research Funding found that 70% of heat stroke deaths occur in children younger than age 2.
高血壓患者、從事戶外工作或在戶外鍛煉的人群以及65歲以上老人面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大。但高溫致死可能發(fā)生在任何人身上。健康研究基金發(fā)現(xiàn)，70%的中暑死亡發(fā)生在2歲以下的兒童中。

科普：中暑的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)處置

高溫?zé)崂藰O易引發(fā)中暑，一旦發(fā)生中暑，要及時(shí)干預(yù)、正確處置，否則癥狀將持續(xù)加重，如發(fā)展至熱射病甚至可能導(dǎo)致死亡。

出現(xiàn)先兆中暑或輕癥中暑，要盡快找到陰涼的地方，解開衣領(lǐng)散熱。喝一點(diǎn)水，用濕毛巾擦拭身體，并及時(shí)休息。

當(dāng)發(fā)現(xiàn)身邊有重癥中暑病人時(shí)，應(yīng)立即將患者移至陰涼處，平躺在平面上，必要時(shí)脫去衣物。如無危及生命的并發(fā)癥，應(yīng)在現(xiàn)場(chǎng)想辦法盡快降低病人體溫，在脖子、腋窩和腹股溝上敷冰袋或濕毛巾等。如有條件可用冷水浸泡的方法對(duì)無基礎(chǔ)疾病的青壯年快速降溫。老人和有基礎(chǔ)疾病的患者可向皮膚噴水通過蒸發(fā)降溫。降溫應(yīng)遵循“先降溫，后轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)” 的原則，在病人失去意識(shí)后的“黃金半小時(shí)”內(nèi)進(jìn)行?，F(xiàn)場(chǎng)處置的同時(shí)，撥打120送醫(yī)。

全球變暖疊加厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象加劇氣溫升高

炎熱來得又早又猛，科學(xué)家們擔(dān)憂，厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象將帶來極端天氣并加劇氣候變暖。

The accelerated high temperatures in the past month or so have astounded scientists, who are pointing to a number of parallel events, including the human-caused climate crisis and the naturally occurring weather event El Ni?o, to explain the cause. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast that global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years. 
過去近一個(gè)月快速來襲的高溫天氣讓科學(xué)家們感到震驚。專家指出，人類活動(dòng)所導(dǎo)致的氣候危機(jī)和厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象等因素疊加導(dǎo)致了今夏的高溫天氣。世界氣象組織（WMO）預(yù)測(cè)，未來五年全球氣溫可能會(huì)飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平。

Since 1884, all 10 of the warmest years recorded have happened after 2003. And with that has come a host of more extreme and more frequent weather events globally that have displaced millions of people, led to food shortages, loss of habitats, and deaths.
自1884年以來，有跡象記錄以來最熱的10年都發(fā)生在2003年之后。隨之而來的是全球一系列更極端、更頻繁的天氣事件，造成數(shù)百萬人流離失所，糧食短缺、棲息地喪失和死亡。

The rising temperatures that are a result of humans burning fossil fuels are being further exacerbated by the naturally occurring weather event known as El Ni?o – where sections of the Pacific Ocean heat up, causing temperatures to spike around the world. It is typically declared when ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean rise 0.5C above the long-term average. Its arrival is particularly worrying because even though there were three La Ni?a episodes (the colder counterpart to El Ni?o where temperatures drop) between 2020 and 2022, last year was still the fifth-warmest year on record globally.
在全球變暖背景下，厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的出現(xiàn)加劇氣溫升高。該現(xiàn)象表現(xiàn)為太平洋部分地區(qū)變暖，導(dǎo)致世界各地的氣溫飆升。當(dāng)赤道東太平洋海溫比長(zhǎng)期平均值高0.5攝氏度時(shí)，就會(huì)形成厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象。厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的到來尤其令人擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)楸M管在2020年至2022年期間發(fā)生了三次拉尼娜現(xiàn)象（厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的較冷對(duì)應(yīng)物），但2022年仍然是有氣象記錄以來全球第五熱年份。

Scientists are concerned that as El Ni?o takes effect, extreme weather events will be that much worse. In 2015 and 2016, El Ni?o affected the food security of more than 60 million people. The weather conditions triggered regional disease outbreaks globally, according to a Nasa study, and it was associated with extreme drought and a record-smashing hurricane season. 
科學(xué)家們擔(dān)心，隨著厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象卷土重來，極端天氣事件將更頻發(fā)。2015年和2016年，厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象影響了6000多萬人的糧食安全。美國(guó)航空航天局（NASA）的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，這種天氣狀況引發(fā)了全球區(qū)域性疾病爆發(fā)，并與極端干旱和創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的颶風(fēng)季節(jié)有關(guān)。

氣溫升高1.5°C地球?qū)?huì)怎樣?

Either way, it is now expected that the average temperature will exceed 1.5C beyond pre-industrial times in the coming years, which is the threshold set out in the Paris agreement where extreme weather events, heatwaves, droughts, flooding and other climate impacts get significantly worse.
無論如何，預(yù)計(jì)未來幾年全球平均氣溫比工業(yè)化前水平將高出1.5攝氏度。這是《巴黎協(xié)定》設(shè)立的升溫閾值。這一情況將導(dǎo)致極端天氣事件、熱浪、干旱、洪水和其他氣候影響顯著加劇。

海洋迅速升溫將致極端天氣頻發(fā)

It is not just the land that we should be worrying about – the ocean is heating up at an alarming rate because of an unprecedented marine heatwave which is being aggravated by, you guessed it, the human-caused climate crisis. Scientists are concerned by not only the sea surface temperatures, which are the warmest in more than 170 years, at 5C above normal, but also by the fact that the rise has come far earlier than they anticipated. The warm waters, described as “beyond extreme”, endanger marine life and make the air warmer and wetter over land as well. Scientists have forecast that there is a 90% to 100% chance that the warm sea surface temperatures will continue through August, with a 70% to 80% chance that it will last through the end of the year.
令人擔(dān)心的不僅僅是陸地氣溫，受前所未有的海洋熱浪影響，海洋溫度正在以驚人速度上升，而正是人類活動(dòng)所導(dǎo)致的氣候危機(jī)在加劇熱浪形成。海面溫度創(chuàng)下170多年來最高紀(jì)錄，比正常溫度高出5攝氏度，令科學(xué)家們更擔(dān)心的是，這一升溫幅度的到來遠(yuǎn)早于預(yù)期。“極端”溫暖水域危及海洋生物，也使陸地上的空氣變得更溫暖潮濕?？茖W(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)，上升的海面溫度將持續(xù)到8月的可能性為90%至100%，持續(xù)到年底的可能性為70%至80%。

Separately, warming oceans lead to sea level rise, more extreme weather and makes them less efficient in absorbing greenhouse emissions.
此外，海洋變暖會(huì)導(dǎo)致海平面上升、極端天氣更加頻發(fā)，并降低海洋吸收溫室氣體排放的效率。

Last year, the Guardian’s Damian Carrington reported that at least a dozen of the most serious weather events, including extreme heatwaves, would have been impossible without human-caused global heating. Ninety-three percent of heatwaves were found to have been made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change. And this is all happening, Carrington pointed out, with a rise of just 1C in the planet’s average temperature. In short: things are going to get a lot worse.
2022年英國(guó)《衛(wèi)報(bào)》的達(dá)米安·卡林頓報(bào)道稱，如果沒有全球氣候變暖，至少十幾起極端高溫等最惡劣的極端天氣事件將不會(huì)發(fā)生。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，全球氣候變暖加劇了93%的熱浪形成的可能性或嚴(yán)重性?？诸D指出，地球的平均溫度只上升了1攝氏度，就引發(fā)了這些后果。簡(jiǎn)而言之：情況會(huì)變得更糟。

綜合《衛(wèi)報(bào)》，ABC 17 NEWS，中國(guó)疾控中心，新華網(wǎng)
編輯：董靜