如果中國放棄嚴(yán)格的清零政策，將會給民眾造成怎樣的影響？由來自復(fù)旦大學(xué)、華山醫(yī)院、美國國立衛(wèi)生研究院和印第安納大學(xué)的研究人員5月10日共同發(fā)表于《自然醫(yī)學(xué)》（Nature Medicine）雜志上的模型研究顯示，在“完全躺平”的情況下，奧密克戎毒株在中國的傳播預(yù)計會導(dǎo)致155萬人死亡。

The study, led by China's Fudan University with scientists from China and the US, estimated that an Omicron wave would result in 112 million symptomatic infections, 2.7 million intensive care admissions (15.6 times the existing capacity) and almost 1.55 million fatalities between May and July in China without the country's dynamic-zero-COVID policy. The related paper was published on the website of the international journal Nature Medicine Tuesday.
這項由復(fù)旦大學(xué)主導(dǎo)、中美科學(xué)家聯(lián)合開展的研究預(yù)測，如果中國不采取“動態(tài)清零”政策，在5月至7月期間，奧密克戎毒株將導(dǎo)致1.12億癥狀感染、270萬人需要重癥監(jiān)護(hù)（現(xiàn)有能力的15.6倍），以及155萬人死亡。相關(guān)論文5月10日發(fā)表在國際期刊《自然醫(yī)學(xué)》的網(wǎng)站上。

The research team developed an age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible (SLIRS) model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission calibrated on the initial growth phase for the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai.
該研究團(tuán)隊開發(fā)了一種基于2022年上海奧密克戎疫情初期增長階段校準(zhǔn)的，分年齡新冠傳播的易感-潛伏-感染-移除-易感（SLIRS）模型。

This mathematical model on infection rates looked at the situation in China as a whole and separately in Shanghai Municipality and China's Shanxi and Shandong provinces to project the COVID-19 burden if the dynamic zero-COVID policy hadn't been adopted. It focused on cases, patients requiring hospitalization and intensive care, and deaths, using hypothetical mitigation scenarios.
該感染率數(shù)學(xué)模型除了對全國平均水平進(jìn)行分析外，還比較了上海、山東、山西三地的情況。
預(yù)測不采取“動態(tài)清零”防疫政策的新冠感染負(fù)擔(dān)。研究使用假設(shè)的新冠緩解策略進(jìn)行預(yù)測，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注感染人數(shù)、需要住院治療和重癥監(jiān)護(hù)的病例數(shù)以及死亡人數(shù)。

The model also considers age-specific vaccine coverage data, vaccine efficacy against different clinical endpoints, waning immunity, antiviral therapies, and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
該模型還考慮了以下因素：特定年齡的疫苗覆蓋率數(shù)據(jù)，疫苗對不同臨床終點(diǎn)的保護(hù)力，疫苗保護(hù)力減弱，不同抗病毒療法和非藥物干預(yù)措施。

The scientists found that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave. They said such a wave would exceed critical care capacity, with intensive care unit peak demand at 15.6 times the existing capacity, and cause about 1.55 million deaths.
科學(xué)家表明，截至2022年3月，中國的疫苗接種水平形成的免疫屏障并不能有效防止奧密克戎感染高峰，重癥監(jiān)護(hù)病房峰值將是現(xiàn)有數(shù)量的15.6倍，可能導(dǎo)致約155萬人死亡。

估算結(jié)果顯示，在奧密克戎流行高峰期，預(yù)計全國需要157萬張呼系統(tǒng)疾病病床，低于我國現(xiàn)有數(shù)量310萬張；但重癥監(jiān)護(hù)病房（ICU）床位需求高峰（100萬）將達(dá)到我國現(xiàn)有ICU床位數(shù)量（64000）的15.6倍，且ICU床位短缺期將持續(xù)44天。

Over 86% Chinese mainland seniors are vaccinated
超86%的中國大陸老年人接種了新冠疫苗

As of May 5, over 1.25 billion people in China, or 88.74 percent of the country's total population, had been fully inoculated against COVID-19. Nearly 216 million of them are over 60.
截至5月5日，中國已有超過12.5億人（占全國總?cè)丝诘?8.74%）完成了新冠疫苗全程接種。其中近2.16億人超60歲。

In addition, about 3.35 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses had been administered across the Chinese mainland, said Wu Liangyou of the National Health Commission (NHC), and nearly 757 million people, or over half of the population, had received the booster jab.
此外，國家衛(wèi)生健康委的吳良友表示，中國大陸共接種約33.5億劑新冠疫苗，超過一半的人口（近7.57億人）進(jìn)行了加強(qiáng)針注射。

As for the senior citizens aged 60 and above – the category most vulnerable to COVID-19 – over 227 million people, or 86.23 percent of the group, had been vaccinated. Over 162 million of the Chinese seniors have received booster shots, added Wu.
60歲及以上的老年人（新冠病毒最易感染人群）中，超過2.27億人接種了新冠疫苗，占該群體的86.23%。吳良友還表示，超過1.62億的中國老年人進(jìn)行了加強(qiáng)針注射。

Zheng Zhongwei, head of vaccine research and development at the NHC, said the data shows vaccination is highly effective for the elderly to fend off severe symptoms and death when infected by COVID-19.
國務(wù)院聯(lián)防聯(lián)控機(jī)制科研攻關(guān)組疫苗研發(fā)專班工作組組長、衛(wèi)健委鄭中偉表示，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，接種疫苗能有效降低老年人的重癥和死亡風(fēng)險。

A vaccination regimen consisting of three shots is an ideal immune process, according to Zheng. "It's about 98 percent effective to prevent severe symptoms after three shots, no matter what kind of vaccine you're taking."
鄭中偉稱，三劑接種新冠疫苗是最佳免疫程序，“無論你接種的是哪種疫苗，三劑接種以后預(yù)防重癥的效果都達(dá)到98%”。

Based on the COVID-19 situation in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), the mortality rate of the elderly who complete three-shot vaccination drops as much as 74 times compared to the unvaccinated, said Zheng. Even for those who only take one shot, the death rate declines three times compared to those without vaccines.
鄭中偉稱，按照香港特區(qū)的疫情情況，完成三劑疫苗接種的老年人死亡率比未接種疫苗的老年人死亡率下降了74倍。即使只接種一劑疫苗的人，死亡率也比沒有接種過疫苗的人下降了三倍。

Zheng added that more than 90 percent of the infected are above 60 with underlying diseases.
他還稱，90%以上的感染者年齡在60歲以上，且患有基礎(chǔ)疾病。

'Dynamic-zero' policy key to curb COVID-19
“動態(tài)清零”是中國防控疫情的制勝“法寶”

Li Bin, vice minister of the National Health Commission, said at a news briefing that China has stuck to the "dynamic zero" policy with targeted measures over the past two years. Successful experiences have proved that the policy is the best choice for China to maintain social and economic development.
國家衛(wèi)生健康委副主任李斌在新聞發(fā)布會上表示，中國在過去兩年中堅持“動態(tài)清零”政策，采取了有針對性的防控措施。成功經(jīng)驗證明，這一政策是中國保持社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的最佳選擇。

'Dynamic zero' does not mean zero infections
“動態(tài)清零”不是絕對的“零感染”

Li stressed that "dynamic zero" does not mean zero infections. With the threats of Omicron and other COVID-19 variants, China cannot guarantee that no individuals will be infected with the novel coronavirus in the short term, but it is able to quickly identify and contain an outbreak once it is detected to prevent the virus from causing greater harm to the wider population.
李斌強(qiáng)調(diào)，“動態(tài)清零”不是絕對的“零感染”，面對奧密克戎等變異株的挑戰(zhàn)，我們還沒有能力保證不出現(xiàn)一例本土病例，但中國的防控措施使得一旦發(fā)現(xiàn)疫情，可以迅速識別并控制疫情發(fā)展，防止病毒對更多人群造成更大傷害。

The essence of the dynamic zero-COVID approach is early detection and quick response measures to stop the continuous spread of the virus in communities to protect people's health and lives to the greatest extent.
“動態(tài)清零”的實(shí)質(zhì)是早期檢測和快速反應(yīng)措施，阻止病毒在社區(qū)的持續(xù)傳播，最大限度地保護(hù)人民的健康和生命。

來源：CGTN
編輯：董靜