四、新疆人口發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實(shí)必然性
IV. Factors Contributing to Xinjiang’s Demographic Development

新疆的人口發(fā)展，伴隨著工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程，經(jīng)歷了高出生、高死亡、低增長(zhǎng)到高出生、低死亡、高增長(zhǎng)，正在向低出生、低死亡、低增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變，是經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展、政策法規(guī)實(shí)施、婚育觀念轉(zhuǎn)變等多重因素綜合作用的結(jié)果，符合世界人口發(fā)展的普遍規(guī)律。
Along with the process of industrialization, urbanization, and modernization, Xinjiang’s demographic development went through three periods of growth:
? high birth rates, high death rates and low growth rates;
? high birth rates, low death rates and high growth rates;
? low birth rates, low death rates and low growth rates.
This trend results from a combination of factors such as economic and social development, evolving policies and regulations, and changes in views on marriage and childbearing. It conforms clearly to general trends of demographic development elsewhere in the world.

從經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展看，新中國(guó)成立以來(lái)，新疆各項(xiàng)事業(yè)取得巨大成就。國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值從1952年的7.91億元增長(zhǎng)到2020年的13797.58億元。人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值從1952年的166元提高到2020年的53593元。教育事業(yè)穩(wěn)步發(fā)展。1949年，新疆僅有1所大學(xué)、9所中學(xué)、1355所小學(xué)，學(xué)齡兒童入學(xué)率只有19.8%，文盲率在90%以上。經(jīng)過(guò)70多年的發(fā)展，新疆已形成從學(xué)前教育到高等教育的完整教育體系。至2020年，村村建有幼兒園，小學(xué)3641所、普通中學(xué)1211所、中等職業(yè)學(xué)校（不含技工學(xué)校）147所、普通高校56所、成人高校6所，學(xué)前教育毛入園率達(dá)到98%以上，小學(xué)凈入學(xué)率達(dá)到99.9%以上，九年義務(wù)教育鞏固率達(dá)到95%以上，高中階段毛入學(xué)率達(dá)到98%以上。阿克蘇、克州、喀什、和田四地州實(shí)施從幼兒園到高中的15年免費(fèi)教育。1951年至2020年，累計(jì)培養(yǎng)高校畢業(yè)生211.5萬(wàn)人，其中少數(shù)民族學(xué)生76.7萬(wàn)人，占36.3%。全民健康水平大幅提升。新中國(guó)成立前，新疆醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生事業(yè)極其落后，只有醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)54個(gè)、病床696張，每千人擁有病床0.16張、醫(yī)生0.019名。至2019年，新疆醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生體系全面形成，醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)遍布城鄉(xiāng)，共有18376個(gè)醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)、186426張病床。嬰兒死亡率由1949年的400‰以上降至2020年的6.75‰，人均預(yù)期壽命由1949年的不到30歲提高到2019年的74.7歲。
Economic and social development: Commendable results have been achieved in many fields in Xinjiang since the founding of the PRC. From 1952 to 2020, Xinjiang’s GDP grew from RMB791 million to RMB1.38 trillion, and per capita regional GDP increased from RMB166 to RMB53,593.
Steady progress has been made in education. In 1949, Xinjiang had only 1 college, 9 secondary schools, and 1,355 primary schools. Only 19.8 percent of school-age children were receiving education at school and the illiteracy rate was over 90 percent. In the 70 years since, a complete education system with institutions providing education from preschool through higher education has been put in place. By 2020, Xinjiang had kindergartens in all villages, and 3,641 primary schools, 1,211 regular secondary schools, 147 secondary vocational schools (excluding skilled workers schools), 56 higher education institutions, and 6 adult colleges across the region. The gross enrollment rate of preschool institutions was over 98 percent, the net enrollment rate of primary schools was almost 100 percent, the completion rate of nine-year compulsory education was over 95 percent, and the gross enrollment rate of high schools was over 98 percent. In Kashgar, Hotan, Aksu, and Kizilsu prefectures, 15-year free education lasting from preschool to high school is available. From 1951 to 2020, Xinjiang produced a total of nearly 2.12 million college graduates, of whom 767,000 (36.3 percent) are ethnic minorities.
A significant improvement has been seen in public health. Before the founding of the PRC, Xinjiang was poorly provided with medical services. It had only 54 medical institutions with 696 beds, placing the medical service capacity at 0.16 beds and 0.019 doctors per 1,000 people. By 2019, a basic health care system had been set up, with 18,376 medical institutions covering urban and rural areas, providing a total of 186,426 beds. The infant mortality rate dropped from over 400 per 1,000 in 1949 to 6.75 per 1,000 in 2020. The average life expectancy rose from less than 30 in 1949 to 74.7 in 2019.

從政策法規(guī)實(shí)施看，中國(guó)實(shí)行計(jì)劃生育經(jīng)歷了先內(nèi)地后邊疆、先城市后農(nóng)村、先漢族后少數(shù)民族的過(guò)程，對(duì)少數(shù)民族執(zhí)行有別于漢族的相對(duì)寬松政策。新疆依據(jù)國(guó)家法律法規(guī)，結(jié)合本地實(shí)際制定計(jì)劃生育相關(guān)政策。20世紀(jì)70年代初，在漢族人口中先實(shí)行計(jì)劃生育；80年代中后期，開(kāi)始在少數(shù)民族中鼓勵(lì)計(jì)劃生育。1992年發(fā)布的《新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)計(jì)劃生育辦法》明確規(guī)定，漢族城鎮(zhèn)居民一對(duì)夫妻生育1個(gè)子女，農(nóng)牧民可生育2個(gè)子女；少數(shù)民族城鎮(zhèn)居民一對(duì)夫妻可生育2個(gè)子女，農(nóng)牧民可生育3個(gè)子女；人口較少民族不實(shí)行計(jì)劃生育。這一差別化生育政策是新疆少數(shù)民族人口保持較快增長(zhǎng)的重要原因。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展和各族群眾生育意愿趨同，2017年新疆修訂《新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)人口與計(jì)劃生育條例》，規(guī)定各民族實(shí)施統(tǒng)一的計(jì)劃生育政策，即城鎮(zhèn)居民一對(duì)夫妻可生育2個(gè)子女，農(nóng)村居民一對(duì)夫妻可生育3個(gè)子女。根據(jù)國(guó)家人口與計(jì)劃生育法律政策調(diào)整情況，新疆還將進(jìn)一步調(diào)整和完善本地人口與計(jì)劃生育法規(guī)政策。新疆在實(shí)行計(jì)劃生育過(guò)程中，始終堅(jiān)持保障婦幼健康、預(yù)防降低出生缺陷、提高家庭生活質(zhì)量等理念，越來(lái)越多的群眾知情自主選擇安全、有效、適宜的避孕節(jié)育措施，育齡婦女自愿接受輸卵管結(jié)扎術(shù)和宮內(nèi)節(jié)育器放置術(shù)，大大減輕了各族婦女非意愿妊娠和頻繁生育負(fù)擔(dān)。
Evolving policies and regulations: The application of family planning measures in China was gradually extended from coastal and inland to border regions, from urban to rural areas, and from the Han people to ethnic minorities. Preferential policies were implemented for ethnic minority groups.
In line with local conditions and in accordance with state laws and regulations, Xinjiang formulated its own family planning policies. Family planning was first applied to the Han people in the region in the early 1970s, and ethnic minorities were exempt until the mid and late 1980s. The Measures on Family Planning released by the autonomous region in 1992 stipulated that urban Han residents could have one child per couple and those residing in farming and pastoral areas could have two, while for ethnic minorities, urban residents could have two children per couple and those in farming and pastoral areas could have three. Ethnic minority groups with smaller populations were not required to follow the family planning policy. This was one of the main reasons why the ethnic minority populations in Xinjiang maintained a rapid growth rate.
In parallel with the region’s economic and social development, the different ethnic groups began to develop similar expectations in terms of family structure. Therefore, Xinjiang amended the Regulations on Population and Family Planning in 2017, introducing universal family planning policies for all ethnic groups: two children per couple for urban residents and three per couple for rural residents. In line with future adjustments to national laws and policies regarding population and family planning, Xinjiang will further modify and improve relevant local regulations and policies.
Xinjiang is committed to protecting the health of women and children, preventing and reducing birth defects, and improving the quality of family life in implementing family planning policies. Couples are now better informed on safe, effective and proper contraception, and are choosing their own preferred method. Women of childbearing age are entitled to voluntary tubal ligation surgery and intrauterine devices to avoid unwanted pregnancies and frequent childbirth.

從婚育觀念看，在過(guò)去相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一個(gè)時(shí)期，新疆尤其是南疆地區(qū)，由于宗教極端主義滲透時(shí)間長(zhǎng)、影響范圍廣、毒害程度深，大量群眾被套上沉重的精神枷鎖，正常的社會(huì)生活受到嚴(yán)重干擾，不少少數(shù)民族群眾在婚姻、家庭、生育等方面深受影響，早生早育、多生密育成為普遍現(xiàn)象。近年來(lái)，新疆依法開(kāi)展去極端化工作，宗教極端主義干預(yù)行政、司法、教育、婚姻、醫(yī)療等現(xiàn)象得到有效遏制，各族群眾對(duì)宗教極端思想危害性的認(rèn)識(shí)明顯提高，婚姻、生育、家庭觀念積極轉(zhuǎn)變，婦女經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和家庭地位不斷提高，各族婦女有更多機(jī)會(huì)接受中高等教育、參與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)活動(dòng)，婦女就業(yè)人數(shù)和比例大幅提升。僅以2019年為例，新疆城鎮(zhèn)新增婦女就業(yè)22.81萬(wàn)人，占城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)人數(shù)的47.43%。晚婚晚育、優(yōu)生優(yōu)育日益深入人心，并成為社會(huì)新風(fēng)尚。
Changes in views on marriage and childbearing: In the past, under the prolonged, pervasive and toxic influence of religious extremism, the life of a large number of people in Xinjiang and particularly in the southern part of the region was subject to severe interference – early marriage and childbearing, and frequent pregnancy and childbirth were commonplace among ethnic minorities.
In recent years, law-based deradicalization has been implemented in Xinjiang. The interference of religious extremism has been eradicated in administration, judicature, education, marriage and health care. The public has become more aware of the dangers of religious extremism. Their views on marriage, childbearing and family have changed accordingly.
The economic, social and family status of women of all ethnic groups has improved, allowing them more opportunities to obtain secondary and higher education, and take an active part in economic and social life. The number and proportion of women in employment have significantly increased. In 2019 for example, 228,100 women joined the workforce in cities and towns across Xinjiang, accounting for 47.43 percent of the total newly employed in urban areas.
Late marriage and childbearing, and sound maternal and child care have penetrated deep into the hearts of local people and become the mainstream social attitude.

五、新疆人口發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)
V. Xinjiang’s Population Prospects

隨著新疆社會(huì)穩(wěn)定紅利的持續(xù)釋放，未來(lái)一個(gè)時(shí)期，新疆人口特別是少數(shù)民族人口將保持穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，人口規(guī)模持續(xù)擴(kuò)大，人口素質(zhì)不斷提高，人口流動(dòng)趨于活躍。
Benefiting from consistent social stability, Xinjiang’s population, in particular that of ethnic minority groups, will continue to maintain steady growth in the near term, improving the quality of the population and encouraging greater social and geographic mobility.

在人口數(shù)量方面，新疆少數(shù)民族年齡結(jié)構(gòu)相對(duì)較輕，育齡婦女規(guī)模較大，少數(shù)民族人口的增長(zhǎng)仍具潛力。隨著新疆落實(shí)國(guó)家優(yōu)化生育政策，實(shí)施一對(duì)夫婦可生育3個(gè)子女政策，并配套實(shí)施積極生育支持措施，將有利于促進(jìn)人口總量穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。
The ethnic minority groups in Xinjiang have considerable potential to grow as they have a relatively young population and a large number of women of childbearing age. Implementation of China’s new childbirth policy that allows a couple to have up to three children, and support measures to boost birth rates will also promote steady population growth in Xinjiang.

在人口素質(zhì)方面，伴隨經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的不斷發(fā)展，新疆教育將進(jìn)入高質(zhì)量發(fā)展階段，教育改革進(jìn)一步深化，學(xué)前教育普及普惠，義務(wù)教育均衡發(fā)展，高中階段教育全面普及，職業(yè)教育擴(kuò)容提質(zhì)，高等教育實(shí)力提升，各族群眾受教育程度不斷提高。新疆衛(wèi)生健康體系日趨完善，城鄉(xiāng)醫(yī)療設(shè)施條件顯著改善，各族群眾享有全方位、全周期健康服務(wù)，人口健康素質(zhì)全面提升。與此同時(shí)，新疆將貫徹落實(shí)并不斷完善婦女權(quán)益保障各項(xiàng)法律政策，深入實(shí)施婦女發(fā)展綱要，持續(xù)改善婦女發(fā)展環(huán)境，促進(jìn)男女平等，提升各族婦女綜合素質(zhì)，倡導(dǎo)現(xiàn)代文明生活方式，使廣大婦女徹底擺脫宗教極端主義桎梏，積極參與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)生活，實(shí)現(xiàn)自身價(jià)值，共享發(fā)展成果。
As a result of steady economic and social development, further reforms will also improve the quality of Xinjiang’s education system. To raise the level of educational attainment, Xinjiang will:
? ensure universal access to preschool education focused on public and non-profit kindergartens;
? balance the development of compulsory education;
? offer universal high school education;
? expand and improve vocational education;
? strengthen higher education.
The health care system in Xinjiang will also expand and improve. Medical facilities in both urban and rural areas will be upgraded, and the people will enjoy comprehensive lifecycle health services. Public health in Xinjiang will improve in all respects.
Xinjiang will strengthen the laws and policies protecting women’s rights and interests, and ensure that these are applied and respected. It will fully implement the National Program for the Development of Women, create an empowering environment for women, promote equality between the sexes, and raise the comprehensive quality of women. The region will advocate modern and healthy lifestyles, and encourage women to throw off the shackles of religious extremism and to participate in social and economic activities, so that they can realize their full potential and share development fruits with the rest of society.

在人口流動(dòng)方面，新疆生活著漢族、維吾爾族、哈薩克族、回族等56個(gè)民族，呈現(xiàn)“大雜居、小聚居、交錯(cuò)雜居”的特點(diǎn)。新疆深入推進(jìn)以人為核心的新型城鎮(zhèn)化，到2035年基本實(shí)現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)化，一批新興城市將相繼建成，城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大，城市聚集人口的效應(yīng)不斷顯現(xiàn)。各民族廣泛交往、全面交流、深度交融，相互嵌入式社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)和社區(qū)環(huán)境更趨完善成熟。受市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)向等因素影響，以上學(xué)、務(wù)工、經(jīng)商、旅游等為目的的自發(fā)自愿人口流動(dòng)，在城鄉(xiāng)之間、南北疆之間、疆內(nèi)外之間將更加頻繁活躍。加之絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶核心區(qū)建設(shè)深入推進(jìn)，以及新時(shí)代西部大開(kāi)發(fā)帶來(lái)新機(jī)遇，新疆豐富的資源和區(qū)位優(yōu)勢(shì)將吸引更多外來(lái)人口前來(lái)投資興業(yè)和居住生活。
All of China’s 56 ethnic groups can be found in Xinjiang, with Uygur, Han, Kazak and Hui the largest groups. The ethnic groups generally choose to live among each other, while some live in concentrated communities of their own.
Xinjiang is promoting people-oriented urbanization and will realize basic urbanization by 2035. A group of emerging cities will grow, and the cities will expand and gather more people.
Different ethnic groups will increase exchanges in all areas, further integrate with each other, and form a more cohesive society with diverse neighborhoods. Driven by market and other factors, voluntary movements of people for schooling, employment, business and tourism will increase between urban and rural areas and both inside and outside the region.
With abundant resources and a favorable geographic location, Xinjiang will attract more investors and migrants to grasp the opportunities presented by further development of core areas on the Silk Road Economic Belt and the implementation of the national strategy to develop western China.

未來(lái)的新疆，社會(huì)更加和諧穩(wěn)定，經(jīng)濟(jì)更加繁榮發(fā)展，就業(yè)更加充分，基本公共服務(wù)均等化水平明顯提高，多層次社會(huì)保障體系更加健全，各族群眾的獲得感、幸福感、安全感不斷增強(qiáng)，人民生活更加幸福美好。
In the future, Xinjiang will enjoy a more stable and harmonious society and a more prosperous economy. It will guarantee fuller employment, ensure equal access to public services, and establish a sound and multitiered social security system, so that all people in the region will lead better lives and have a stronger sense of fulfillment, happiness and security.