五、美國政府不當做法對世界經濟發(fā)展的危害
V. Damage of the improper practices of the US administration to global economy

美國政府采取的一系列極端貿易保護措施，破壞了國際經濟秩序，傷害了包括中美經貿交往在內的全球經貿關系，沖擊了全球價值鏈和國際分工體系，干擾了市場預期，引發(fā)國際金融和大宗商品市場劇烈震蕩，成為全球經濟復蘇的最大不確定因素和風險源。
The US government has taken extreme trade protectionist measures, which have undermined the international economic order, caused damage to China-US trade and trade relations around the world, disrupted the global value chain and the international division of labor, upset market expectations, and led to violent swings in the international financial and commodity markets. It has become the greatest source of uncertainty and risk for the recovery of the global economy.

（一）破壞多邊貿易規(guī)則和國際經濟秩序
1. Such measures undermine the multilateral trade rules and the international economic order

在走向文明的歷史進程中，人類社會已普遍接受一套基于規(guī)則和信用的國際治理體系。各國無論大小強弱，均應相互尊重、平等對話，以契約精神共同維護國際規(guī)則，這對于促進全球貿易投資、促進全球經濟增長具有基礎性作用。然而，美國政府近期采取了一系列違背甚至破壞現(xiàn)行多邊貿易規(guī)則的不當做法，嚴重損害了現(xiàn)行國際經濟秩序。美國政府多次在公開場合抨擊世界貿易組織規(guī)則及其運行機制，拒絕支持多邊貿易體制，消極參與全球經濟治理，造成2017年和2018年亞太經合組織貿易部長會議均未在支持多邊貿易體制問題上達成一致立場。特別是美國政府不同意將“反對貿易保護主義”寫入部長聲明，遭到亞太經合組織其他成員一致反對。美國猛烈抨擊世界貿易組織上訴機構，還數(shù)次阻撓上訴機構啟動甄選程序，導致世界貿易組織上訴機構人員不足，爭端解決機制瀕臨癱瘓。
In the advance toward civilization, humanity has widely accepted an international governance system based on rules and credibility. Countries, big or small, strong or weak, should respect each other, engage in equal-footed dialogue and jointly safeguard international rules in the spirit of contract. This is fundamental to promoting global trade and investment and boosting global growth. However, the recent steps taken by the US administration that are contrary and even destructive to the existing multilateral trade rules seriously undermine the current international economic order. The US administration has issued open criticisms of the rules and operation mechanism of the WTO on various occasions. It has refused to endorse the multilateral trading system, and at the same time has adopted a negative attitude toward global economic governance, which caused the failure of the APEC Trade Ministers Meetings, in both 2017 and 2018, to reach consensus on supporting the multilateral trading system. In particular, the US administration’s objection to writing “opposition to trade protectionism” into the ministers’ statement was met with opposition from every other APEC member. The US lashed out at the WTO appellate body and repeatedly blocked the appointment procedures of the body, resulting in an understaffed appellate body and pushing the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism to the brink of paralysis.

（二）阻礙國際貿易和全球經濟復蘇
2. Such measures obstruct world trade and the recovery of the global economy

隨著全球化進程發(fā)展，各國經濟基于經貿關系的相互關聯(lián)度越來越高，貿易已成為全球經濟增長的重要動力。根據(jù)世界銀行統(tǒng)計，全球經濟對貿易增長的依存度已從1960年的17.5%上升到2017年的51.9%（圖13）。
As globalization moves forward, the economies of the world are increasingly connected through trade. Trade has become a major engine for global growth. According to the World Bank, the international economy’s dependence on trade rose from 17.5 percent in 1960 to 51.9 percent in 2017 (Chart 13).

當前，全球經濟剛剛走出國際金融危機的陰影，回升態(tài)勢并不穩(wěn)固。美國政府大范圍挑起貿易摩擦，阻礙國際貿易，勢必會對世界經濟復蘇造成負面影響。為了遏制美國的貿易保護主義行為，其他國家不得不采取反制措施，這將導致全球經貿秩序紊亂，阻礙全球經濟復蘇，殃及世界各國企業(yè)和居民，使全球經濟落入“衰退陷阱”（表6）。
The global economy has just emerged from the shadow of the 2008 global financial crisis and the recovery is yet to be solidly-based. In this context, the US administration’s actions to instigate large-scale trade frictions and impede the flow of world trade will undoubtedly affect the recovery of the global economy. In order to mitigate the protectionist moves of the US, countries are left with no choice but to take countermeasures. This will disrupt the world economic and trade order, and hold back global recovery, damaging the interests of companies and people of all countries and pushing the global economy back into recession (Table 6).

世界銀行2018年6月5日發(fā)布的《全球經濟展望》報告指出，全球關稅廣泛上升將會給全球貿易帶來重大負面影響，至2020年全球貿易額下降可達9%，對新興市場和發(fā)展中經濟體的影響尤為明顯，特別是那些與美國貿易或金融市場關聯(lián)度較高的經濟體（圖14）。世界貿易組織總干事羅伯特·阿澤維多表示，若關稅回到關稅總協(xié)定/世界貿易組織之前的水平，全球經濟將立即收縮2.5%，全球貿易量削減60%以上，影響將超過2008年國際金融危機。貿易戰(zhàn)對所有人都有害，特別是窮人將損失63%的購買力（注76）。歷史教訓一再表明，貿易戰(zhàn)沒有贏家，甚至會給世界和平和發(fā)展帶來嚴重影響（專欄8）。
According to “Global Economic Prospects” published by the World Bank on June 5, 2018, a broad-based increase in tariffs worldwide would have major adverse consequences, which could translate into a decline in global trade amounting to 9 percent by 2020. The impact would be more severe on emerging markets and developing economies, particularly on those with large trade or financial market linkages with the US (Chart 14). According to WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo, if tariffs return to the pre-GATT/WTO level, the global economy would contract by 2.5 percent instantly and more than 60 percent of global trade would disappear, creating an impact more serious than that of the 2008 global financial crisis. A trade war is detrimental to all, and particularly to the poor, who could lose 63 percent of their purchasing power. History has proven time and again that trade wars produce no winners and can severely affect world peace and development (Box 8).

圖表：專欄8 美國1930年《斯姆特—霍利關稅法》的歷史教訓 新華社發(fā)

（三）沖擊全球價值鏈
3. Impact on the global value chain

當前，全球經濟已經深度一體化，各國充分發(fā)揮各自在技術、勞動力、資本等方面的比較優(yōu)勢，在全球經濟中分工合作，形成運轉高效的全球價值鏈，共同分享價值鏈創(chuàng)造的經濟全球化紅利。尤其是以跨國公司為代表的各國企業(yè)通過在全球范圍內配置資源，最大限度降低了生產成本，提高了產品和服務質量，實現(xiàn)了企業(yè)之間、企業(yè)與消費者之間的共贏。
In a deeply integrated global economy, countries form a highly efficient global value chain and share in the dividends of economic globalization through division of labor by harnessing their respective strengths in technology, labor and capital. Companies, especially multinational ones, minimize their production costs and raise the quality of their products and services through global allocation of resources, thus achieving a win-win result for themselves and for consumers.

美國政府通過加征關稅、高筑貿易壁壘等手段在世界范圍內挑起貿易摩擦，以貼“賣國標簽”、威脅加稅等方式要求美資跨國公司回流美國，將嚴重破壞甚至割裂全球價值鏈，沖擊全球范圍內正常的產品貿易和資源配置，并通過各國經貿的相互關聯(lián)，產生廣泛的負面溢出效應，降低全球經濟的運行效率。比如，汽車、電子、飛機等行業(yè)都依靠復雜而龐大的產業(yè)鏈支撐，日本、歐盟、韓國等供應鏈上的經濟體都將受到貿易收縮的負面影響，并產生一連串的鏈式反應，即使美國國內的供應商也會在劫難逃。根據(jù)中國商務部測算，美國對華第一批340億美元征稅產品清單中，約有200多億美元產品（占比約59%）是美、歐、日、韓等在華企業(yè)生產的。包括美國企業(yè)在內，全球產業(yè)鏈上的各國企業(yè)都將為美國政府的關稅措施付出代價。
By raising tariffs and erecting trade barriers, the US administration has provoked trade frictions worldwide. US multinationals are being threatened with “traitor” labels and punitive taxes if they do not move their operations back to the US. Such moves will seriously undermine or even break the global value chain, and jeopardize the normal flows of trade and resource allocation across the world. And because of the interconnections between countries through trade and economic links, they will also produce extensive spillovers, and reduce the efficiency of the global economy. For example, sectors such as automobiles, electronics and aircraft are all supported by complex, massive industrial chains. Economies on the supply chain, including Japan, the EU and the ROK, would all be adversely affected by contracting trade. Even US suppliers would not be immune from the subsequent ripple effect. According to the estimates of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, of the US$34 billion of Chinese products targeted by the first round of US tariff increases, over US$20 billion – nearly 59 percent of the value – are goods produced by companies from the US, the EU, Japan, the ROK and other economies operating in China. Ultimately, companies from all countries on the global industrial chain – including those from the US – would have to pay the price for tariff measures introduced by the US administration.

國際貨幣基金組織2018年4月17日發(fā)布的《世界經濟展望》報告指出，關稅和非關稅貿易壁壘的增加將破壞全球價值鏈，減緩新技術的擴散，導致全球生產率和投資下降。彼得森國際經濟研究所認為，若美國對中國施加貿易制裁并導致中國反制，許多向中國出口中間產品和原材料的國家與地區(qū)也將遭受嚴重沖擊（注77）。
The “World Economic Outlook” report released by the IMF on April 17, 2018 noted that raising tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers will disrupt the global value chain, slow down the spread of new technologies, and lead to a drop in global productivity and investment. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) argued that if the US imposes trade sanctions on China that prompt countermeasures, many countries and regions that export intermediate inputs and raw materials to China will also take a heavy hit.

（四）貿易保護主義最終損害美國自身利益
4. Trade protectionism will ultimately hurt US interests

在經濟全球化的時代，各國經濟你中有我、我中有你，特別是大型經濟體存在緊密的相互聯(lián)系。美國政府單方面挑起貿易戰(zhàn)，不僅會對世界各國經濟產生沖擊，也會損害美國自身利益。
Thanks to economic globalization, economies, particularly the larger ones, are highly interdependent. Ultimately, trade wars unilaterally initiated by the US administration will not only hurt other economies but also undermine US interests.

提高美國制造業(yè)成本，影響美國就業(yè)。彼得森國際經濟研究所發(fā)布報告指出，95%被加征關稅的中國商品是零配件與電子組件，它們被組裝在“美國制造”的最終產品中，提高相關產品關稅將損害美國企業(yè)自身（注78）?！都~約時報》稱，中國生產的發(fā)動機及其他零部件對美造船企業(yè)至關重要，暫時無法找到替代品，造船企業(yè)利潤空間基本不可能消化25%的關稅成本，提高自身產品價格將失去市場份額（注79）。通用電氣公司預測，美國對自中國進口商品加征關稅將導致其成本上升3億－4億美元。通用汽車、福特及菲亞特－克萊斯勒等汽車制造商紛紛下調了全年利潤預測（注80）。美國最大的鐵釘制造商中洲公司表示，對進口鋼鐵加征關稅致使其成本提升，產品價格被迫上漲，銷售額預計將下降50%，公司經營面臨較大沖擊。今年6月，該公司已解雇了500名工人中的60名，并計劃再解雇200名工人。中洲公司的困境還擴散到其下游的包裝環(huán)節(jié)——與其合作的SEMO包裝公司，由于業(yè)務縮減，已經開始裁員（注81）。彼得森國際經濟研究所的評估指出，美國對進口汽車加征關稅將導致美國減少19.5萬個就業(yè)崗位，若受到其他國家報復性措施，就業(yè)崗位可能減少62.4萬個（注82）。
It will push up manufacturing costs and affect American jobs. A PIIE report contends that since 95 percent of the Chinese products hit by higher tariffs are parts and electronic components used in end products made in the US, raising tariffs on these Chinese products will only damage US businesses. According to the New York Times, electric motors and other components from China are vital to the US boating industry, and it is not easy for importers to find substitutes. Their profit margins are too thin to absorb the cost of 25 percent tariffs, and raising prices would cost them market share. General Electric estimates that new tariffs on imports from China could raise its overall costs by US$300-400 million. General Motors, Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles have lowered their full-year profit forecasts due to escalating tariffs. Mid-Continent, the largest nail manufacturer in the US, said its sales would plummet by 50 percent after it raised prices to cope with its elevated steel costs, and that it laid off 60 of its 500 workers in June and planned to downsize by another 200. Mid-Continent’s problems have already spread downstream. For example, Semo Packaging has started to shed its workforce as a result of fewer orders from Mid-Continent and similar customers. PIIE also projected that raising tariffs on imported automobiles would cause 195,000 US workers to lose their jobs. If other countries retaliate in kind, 624,000 US jobs would be lost.

導致美國國內物價上升，消費者福利受損。美國自中國進口產品中，消費品一直占很高比重。根據(jù)美國商務部經濟分析局統(tǒng)計，2017年消費品（不包括食品和汽車）占中國對美出口的比重為46.6%。長期進口中國物美價廉的消費品是美國通脹率保持低位的重要因素之一。美國設備制造商協(xié)會在敦促美國政府不要實施損害經濟的關稅措施時指出，關稅是對美國消費者的稅收。美國國家納稅人聯(lián)盟在2018年5月3日寫給國會與總統(tǒng)的公開信中警告稱，保護性關稅將導致美國消費品價格上漲，傷害多數(shù)美國公民利益（注83）。美國汽車制造商聯(lián)盟在6月提交給政府的一份文件稱，其對2017年汽車銷售數(shù)據(jù)的分析顯示，對進口汽車征收25%的關稅將導致平均價格上漲5800美元，這將使美國消費者每年的消費成本增加近450億美元（注84）。
It will drive up prices in the US and harm consumers. Consumer goods account for a considerable share in the US imports from China. The figure (excluding food and automobiles) stood at 46.6 percent in 2017, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce. For many years, the import of inexpensive yet quality products from China has been key to low inflation in the US. The US Association of Equipment Manufacturers has urged the administration not to levy economy-damaging tariffs, as they will only boomerang and increase the tax burden on US consumers. The US National Taxpayers Union warned in an open letter to Congress and President Trump on May 3, 2018 that higher protective duties would increase the prices which domestic consumers would have to pay and few people could hope to gain from such a change. The US Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers concluded in a June report to the government that based on its analysis of 2017 automobile sales figures, a 25 percent tariff on imported automobiles would drive up the average price by US$5,800, thus increasing the cost for US consumers by nearly US$45 billion every year.

引發(fā)貿易伙伴反制措施，反過來損害美國經濟。美國政府向包括中國在內的很多重要貿易伙伴發(fā)動貿易戰(zhàn)，已引發(fā)各貿易伙伴的反制措施，勢必使美國一些地區(qū)、產業(yè)、企業(yè)承擔大量損失。截至2018年7月底，包括中國、加拿大、墨西哥、俄羅斯、歐盟、土耳其在內的美國主要貿易伙伴均已宣布對其貿易保護主義措施實施反制，并相繼通過世界貿易組織提起訴訟。例如，加拿大政府6月29日宣布，將從7月1日起，對價值約126億美元從美國進口的商品加征關稅。7月6日，俄羅斯經濟部宣布將對部分美國商品加征25%－40%的關稅。歐盟針對美國鋼鋁關稅采取反制措施，將美國進口摩托車關稅從6%提高至31%。
It triggers countermeasures from trading partners and will in turn hurt the US economy. The trade war waged by the US administration against China and many other important trading partners has led to countermeasures, and will cause huge losses to some regions, industries and firms in the US. As of the end of July 2018, major US trading partners including China, Canada, Mexico, Russia, the EU and Turkey had all announced countermeasures against US trade protectionism, and had filed lawsuits at the WTO. For example, the Canadian government announced on June 29 a tariff increase on US$12.6 billion of US goods, effective from July 1. The Russian Economy Ministry announced a 25 percent to 40 percent tariff hike on some US products on July 6. As a countermeasure to American duties on European steel and aluminum, the EU raised tariffs on US-made motorcycles from 6 percent to 31 percent.

美國商會指出，貿易戰(zhàn)將導致美國相關州利益受損，得克薩斯州39億美元的出口產品、南卡羅來納州30億美元的出口產品以及田納西州14億美元的出口產品或受到報復性關稅打擊（注85）。美國消費者選擇研究中心稱，美國政府實際上在用關稅“懲罰”其選民，依賴出口的北卡羅來納州超過15萬個工作崗位、南卡羅來納州6500名工人將受到報復性關稅的直接影響（注86）。美國知名摩托車制造企業(yè)哈雷公司評估，歐盟的報復性關稅措施將導致每輛銷往歐洲的摩托車成本增加2200美元，會在2018年內給公司造成3000萬至4500萬美元的損失。為應對這一不利局面，哈雷公司已表示計劃將部分摩托車制造產能轉移出美國（注87）。
The US Chamber of Commerce has pointed out that a trade war will hit some American states. For example, Texas could see US$3.9 billion worth of exports targeted by retaliatory tariffs; South Carolina, US$3 billion and Tennessee, US$1.4 billion. The Consumer Choice Center stated that the US government is actually “punishing” American voters with the tariffs it introduced, as over 150,000 jobs in North Carolina and 6,500 workers in South Carolina, both being heavily export-dependent states, will be directly affected by the retaliatory duties. Harley-Davidson Inc., a famous American motorcycle maker, estimated that the EU’s retaliation will cost about US$2,200 per motorcycle shipped to Europe, forecasting US$30 million to US$45 million in costs linked to the EU tariffs for the remainder of 2018. As a response, the company is shifting the production of some bikes overseas.

影響投資者對美國經濟環(huán)境的信心，導致外國直接投資凈流入降低。不斷升級的經貿摩擦使企業(yè)信心不穩(wěn)，在投資上持觀望態(tài)度。彼得森國際經濟研究所所長亞當·波森指出，美國政府的“經濟民族主義”政策不僅使美國在貿易領域付出了代價，在投資領域引發(fā)的消極后果也開始顯現(xiàn)。近期，美國及外國跨國公司在美投資數(shù)量幾乎為零，企業(yè)投資方向轉變將影響美國的長期收入增長和高收入就業(yè)崗位，并使全球企業(yè)加速遠離美國。根據(jù)美國商務部經濟分析局數(shù)據(jù)，2016年和2017年第一季度，美國外國直接投資流入額分別為1465億美元和897億美元，而2018年同期已降至513億美元。這一變化是美國對長期投資吸引力下降的結果（注88）。
It erodes investors’ confidence in the American economic environment and results in less net foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States. As the trade friction escalates, companies feel less confident and more hesitant about investment. Adam S. Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argued that beyond the cost of the trade war, the US government’s policy of “economic nationalism” has taken a toll in another important sphere: net inward investment into the US by multinational corporations – both foreign and American – has fallen almost to zero. This shift of corporate investment away from the US will decrease long-term US income growth, reduce the number of well-paid jobs available, and accelerate the shift of global commerce away from the US. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce show that in the first quarters of 2016 and 2017, the total net FDI inflow was US$146.5 billion and US$89.7 billion. For the same quarter in 2018, the figure was down to US$51.3 billion. This is a result of a general decline in the US attractiveness as a place to make long-term business commitments.